Bob_Tarlau's Blog

What a wild week in a wild political year! We’ve had comebacks, concessions, victories and one big wakeup. The wakeup was for Barack Obama – who discovered the hard way that he doesn’t have the Democratic nomination in the bag. At least, not for now.

Some thoughts on John McCain and his success in locking up the GOP nomination a little later.

But first the Democrats: While Hillary Clinton won Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island on Tuesday night, the way Obama’s campaign tells it, nothing has really changed. They’re quick to point out their man has won nearly twice the number of states she has and that he leads in both the popular vote and in pledged delegates. And strictly by the numbers, that’s true. He’s 101 delegates closer to the magic 2,025 number than she is.

But now it’s more than math. For the dynamics of the Democratic race have shifted sharply. HillaryClinton.com carried the banner headline "MOMENTUM: KEEP IT GOING" on Wednesday morning.  Defying political gravity after 12 straight primary losses with wins in two major states, Texas and Ohio, she’s already been able to quiet the calls for her to get out of the race for the sake of party unity.

The divided and excited electorate has once again thrown her a political lifeline. It seemed like New Hampshire all over again, where she won after her third-place finish in Iowa.

The New York Times said it well on Wednesday: “Those two states were the battlegrounds where Mr. Obama was going to bury the last opponent to his history-making nomination, finally delivering on his message of hope while dashing the hopes of a Clinton presidential dynasty.”

She’s in it now until the next big primary, Pennsylvania, on April 22 and I think – win or lose – at least until this long primary parade ends in June. If she takes Pennsylvania, she will surely claim she’s won all the "big" states (including California, New York, Texas and Ohio) and has the best shot at winning the general election - an argument that just might help sway enough Democratic superdelegates to help her secure the nomination.

Clinton won't still can’t catch Obama in the race for Democratic delegates chosen in primaries and caucuses, even if she wins every remaining contest. But Obama cannot win the nomination with just his pledged primary and caucus delegates either. That sets the stage for a pitched battle for support among those superdelegates, the party and elected officials who automatically attend the convention and can support whomever they choose.

You can bet on one thing: in the six and a bit weeks until Pennsylvania, the Clinton vs. Obama affair will continue to be a nasty one. Obama had a slick campaign running since Super Tuesday, but he will need to ratchet up the rhetoric on such issues as national security and NAFTA, which many think helped her surge in the last few days leading up to Texas and Ohio.

How will Clinton do in Pennsylvania? According to the latest Rasmusssen Reports telephone survey, released on Thursday, she has opened a fifteen percentage point lead over Obama, 52 to 37 per cent.

Many Democrats were hoping this divisive race might have ended this past Tuesday night. Of course, those wanting that were pretty much all Obama supporters. Now this thing just could go all the way to the Democratic Convention which is the last week of August in Denver. Somehow I doubt that because there’s a strong possibility it won’t be settled with Pennsylvania.

Of course, if the Florida and Michigan mess is tidied up by actually having new primary elections in both states, Clinton is likely to get a surge. She won both contests, but the results were meaningless because the elections violated national party rules.

Amid all this, there’s renewed talk of a ticket with both of them on it. Do you think John McCain could beat that?   I doubt it.  Clinton said on Wednesday that it might come to that but then chuckled as she stated the obvious: Who would top that ticket?  For his part, Obama said again it’s too early to consider it.

Now to the Republicans… and congratulations to McCain who sped across the finish line with victories in all four states that voted Tuesday, leaving his sole surviving competitor gasping in the dust. Mike Huckabee dropped out, with grace.

On Wednesday, McCain was summoned to a White House political love fest. In the Rose Garden, they he stood side by side with a man he once despised, George W. Bush. It was an ironic photo, one that the Democrats are sure to use in the fall campaign with a caption something like this: You want four more years of this?

McCain was a maverick in his campaign for the 2000 Republican presidential nomination when he gave then-Texas Gov. Bush a scare by winning the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire by 18 percentage points. But he lost to Bush in South Carolina after bitter state primary campaigns.

But McCain – in becoming a major cheerleader for the Iraq war – has fallen into lockstep with some key Bush policies. That’s helping McCain with the already committed. But it will continue to hurt with the majority who are weary of the conflict and eager to get U.S. troops home.

Looking ahead—and raising some questions: The Democratic convention – whether or not it turns into a floor fight over the nomination – will be rousing affair and the nominee will come out with a lot of momentum. (Heck, even John Kerry had the big mo coming out of Boston in 2004, although his drive died fast when he got Swift Boated – a brilliant tactic by Republican operatives). This time, the Democratic momentum might just wash right over the Republican convention which will be held the very next week (in Minneapolis). Once again – as it was in 2004 – the presidency will become the Democratic Party’s to loose.

Will the Dems slip and stumble when (that’s WHEN not IF) the GOP once again greases the skids? Clinton is better prepared to wage a defensive battle than Obama. I’m not saying she would be a better President than Obama. I’m just saying she has the savvy and strength to fight it out in the trenches. And that’s what it’s going to take to win the White House.

Your comments please. And you can read my earlier political posts with a click on this link:

http://community.myfoxla.com/blogs/Bob_Tarlau

Thanks for surfing by. I’ll blog right back here next Friday.

Cheers, Bob