Bob_Tarlau's Blog

It was indeed another wild political week… although it didn’t start out that way. Early on, Barack Obama captured both Wyoming and Mississippi as expected. But then, Eliot Spitzer and his high-priced hooker were completely unexpected. So – for a change -- let’s start with the non-presidential politics.

I’d certainly like your take on the dirt that’s overwhelmed New York City’s Mr. Clean. First a couple of things to keep in mind: Resigning won't spare Eliot Spitzer from the heat of a criminal investigation — federal prosecutors must still decide what to do with the case of the disgraced New York governor and the prostitutes. There’s no question a plea deal is in the works between those prosecutors and Spitzer's high-powered defense team over his connection to a high-end prostitution ring. But, so far, no one who knows is saying anything.

The Associated Press quotes Evan Barr, a private practice lawyer who once handled such cases for the same Manhattan U.S. Attorney's Office that is now weighing how to proceed with Spitzer, as saying: "Corruption cases often pose a dilemma for the prosecutor. If you charge a public figure under an obscure or rarely used legal theory, the critics will say the prosecution is politically motivated; if you decline to charge under the same circumstances, the critics will say the prosecutor is going easy on the would-be defendant because he or she is a prominent person."

What’s certain is that Spitzer, a married father of three teenage girls, faces a dubious future after he was accused of spending tens of thousands of dollars on prostitutes — including a tryst with a 22-year-old call girl in Washington the night before Valentine's Day. Officials said Spitzer initially drew the attention of authorities with suspicious money transfers that will be a key part of any possible criminal case. Among the possible charges that could be brought against him are: soliciting and paying for sex; violating the Mann Act, the 1910 federal law that makes it a crime to induce someone to cross state lines for immoral purposes; and illegally arranging cash transactions to conceal their purpose.

But legal experts said bringing charges and getting a conviction would be unusual, considering federal authorities rarely charge the customers in illegal sex or drug cases. So what’s the likely outcome? Many legal eagles figure it could be what’s called a "deferred prosecution agreement," which could leave Spitzer on probation with charges dropped if he did not get into any more trouble.

The collateral consequence of scandal often is newfound celebrity. So now we have the rising prospects for the 22-year-old call girl involved in the Spitzer scandal. At least those prospect are momentarily rising. Identified in court papers as “Kristen,” it turns out she’s an aspiring musician named Ashley Alexandra Dupre. Her identity was only first reported Wednesday, but already her fame is skyrocketing.

Curious about the woman so integral in the New York governor's downfall, many have flocked to MySpace to view her photos, music and biographical information. That material was removed Thursday after over more than 5 million visited her page. Dupre's page had portrayed her as a New Jersey native who left a broken home to pursue a music career in New York. Court papers allege that Spitzer paid thousands of dollars for her services with the Emperor's Club VIP.

Dupre had also posted two songs at the music sharing site Aime Street, which allows musicians to earn a 70% cut of download fees, which are determined by their popularity. The songs, What You Want and Move Ya Body are dance-pop tunes a la Britney Spears. In the past few days, they’ve been downloaded at least 200,000 times. On What We Want, she sings: "I know what you need / Can you handle me?" Ironic, isn’t it?

But will her fame be just a quick flash… not something that will generate big profits? Those who follow the music industry say major labels will be unlikely to sign her, but in the past smaller labels have taken a stab at capitalizing on such notoriety. The AP recalls that Koch Entertainment profited by releasing an album in 2004 by William Hung, the American Idol castoff who horrendously sang She Bangs.

Following the scandals of former President Clinton, Gennifer Flowers published a memoir in 1995, and Monica Lewinsky made inroads into the entertainment industry, hosting a short-lived reality TV dating program called Mr. Personality in 2003. So what do you think? Can “Kristen” (aka Ashley Depure) make it in the pop world? From the little I’ve heard of her songs on the radio, I’ve got to think it’s a long shot.

Enough – at least for this blog -- of the Spitzer self-destruction and its multi-headed fallout. But please be sure and send along your comments on it. For now, let’s get back to presidential politics.

We’ve entered a respite from all the primaries, at least for now. Next up is Pennsylvania on April 22nd. And that, of course, will be very important to both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Who is favored? Let’s look at the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey. It shows Clinton leading Obama 51% to 38% in Pennsylvania. Clinton now leads by twenty-five percentage points among women and is essentially even among men. She attracts votes from 69% of white women while also leading among voters over 40 and those with incomes under $75,000 a year. Obama leads 79% to 13% among African-American voters.

Then we have those comments about Obama from Clinton supporter Geraldine Ferraro, the one time Democratic Party vice presidential nominee. Rasmussen says 66% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters have been following the story at least somewhat closely. Ferraro had told a newspaper that "if Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position." Clinton voters are fairly evenly divided on Ferraro’s comment—39% agree and 47% disagree. Obama voters overwhelmingly reject Ferraro’s premise—93% disagree with her statement while only 4% agree. Tell me please where you fall in this. I believe that whatever Ferraro felt personally, she wasn’t helping anyone (including herself) by making them public. The incident was truly unfortunate and those kinds of public comments by a well known political figure serve no purpose except to pump up race as an issue in this campaign. Let’s vote on the people who are running and their political positions, not their race or gender.

Rasmussen Reports also provides a glimpse of the November results. In Pesnnylvania, this survey found 44% believe Clinton will do better in the fall campaign against John McCain. Thirty-seven percent (37%) believe Obama will be the better general election candidate. By a 43% to 38% margin, Likely Democratic Primary voters in Pennsylvania believe Obama will be the nominee. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Obama voters believe their candidate will win. Twenty-two percent (22%) of Clinton supporters expect Obama to win as well.

If Obama does, in fact, win the nomination, just 57% of Clinton voters say they are even somewhat likely to vote for him against John McCain. If Clinton is the nominee, just 64% of Obama voters say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for her against McCain. Again these figures come only from Pennsylvania, but they are interesting when we consider Campaign ’08 in the long term.

Finally – this matter of whether and how Michigan and Florida should re-vote. Today (Friday) a Michigan congresswoman says the state's Democrats are working on plans for a June 3 primary. Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick said the primary would be statewide and would be funded through party money. She is one of four Democrats who are not endorsing either candidate who are working together on a plan for a repeat primary.

Clinton won a primary the state held in January, but Obama's name wasn't on the ballot. He had it removed because the primary was held too early to comply with national party rules, meaning no delegates were at stake.

Florida also had its delegates stripped for holding a primary in January. This week, the Florida Democratic Party offered a plan for a mail-in primary, but admits it doesn’t have a good chance of being approved.

What do you think should be done to have Michigan and Florida represented? We’re talking about a sizeable chunk of electoral votes. I think both states should be represented and it seems the mail-in method would make the most practical and economic sense.

That’s my take on This Political Week. I’ll be blogging back back to this spot on MyFoxLA.com next Friday.