Bob_Tarlau's Blog

We’re certainly into the twilight of this long presidential primary calendar and this morning (Fri Apr 18) comes word of a dramatic reversal in the Obama vs. Clinton clash. An Associated Press-Yahoo! News poll finds a clear majority of Democratic voters now say Sen. Barack Obama has a better chance of defeating Republican Sen. John McCain in November than Sen. Hillary Clinton.

While Obama and Clinton are both sustaining dents and dings from their lengthy presidential fight, the former first lady is clearly suffering more. Democratic voters no longer see her as the party's strongest contender for the White House.

Voters of all types have gotten a better sense of Obama, who was an obscure Illinois legislator just four years ago. As more people moved from the "I don't know him" category in the AP-Yahoo! News poll, more rated Obama as inexperienced, unethical and dishonest. And 15 percent erroneously think he's a Muslim, thanks in part to disinformation widely spread on the Internet.

But Obama's positive ratings have climbed as well, while Clinton — widely known since the early 1990s — has been less able to change people's views of her. And when those views have shifted, it has hurt her more than helped. The New York senator's ratings for being honest, likable, ethical and refreshing have fallen since January, and Obama scores higher than she does in all those categories.

Key dates remaining on the primary calendar are the votes in Pennsylvania next Tue Apr 22 and in Indiana and North Carolina two weeks later. My emphasis this week is on Pennsylvania.

First, it’s of note that while Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton continue to compete against each other in Pennsylvania, both have opened a lead over John McCain there. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Pennsylvania finds Obama leading McCain 47% to 39% and Clinton with a 47% to 38% advantage. That’s a significant change from a month ago when McCain was essentially even with both Democrats.

It’s especially interesting to note that the Democrats have gained ground on McCain during their Pennsylvania Primary battle. Just the opposite happened in neighboring Ohio. McCain took the lead in the Buckeye State following the Democratic bickering and has retained that lead over the past month. Democratic struggles in Michigan also appear to have benefited McCain.

Rasmussen figures the six-week pace of the Pennsylvania Primary has worked to benefit the Democrats’ general election prospects. Over the past month, favorable ratings for both Democrats have improved a bit. Obama is now viewed favorably by 57% of the state’s voters, Clinton by 53%. A month ago, those figures were 53% and 50% respectively. McCain is now viewed favorably by 50%, down from 55% in March.

Trailing in delegates, Clinton has staked her candidacy on a strong showing in the Pennsylvania primary. Obama has eroded Clinton's lead in several state polls and an upset could irrevocably damage her candidacy.

Second, there was one Obama-Clinton pre-Pennsylvania primary debate this week and that was in Philadelphia on Wednesday evening. The most interesting part was Clinton saying emphatically – for the first time -- that Obama can win the White House this fall, undercutting her earlier efforts to deny him the Democratic presidential nomination by suggesting he would lead the party to defeat. When pressed about Obama’s electability, she said: “Yes, yes, yes.” Asked a similar question about Clinton, Obama said "Absolutely and I've said so before" — a not-so-subtle dig at his rival who had previously declined to make a similar statement about him.

Third, it’s important to take note that while Pennsylvania is military serviced-oriented, it’s also war-weary. Both candidates promise to end the war, but in a state with a remarkable history of venerating military service, how that end should be achieved weighs heavily with many voters. Polling shows Democratic voters overwhelmingly disapprove of the war. What divides them is a quick withdrawal versus a longer drawdown of troops.

For many voters, the anger over the war that helped push five Pennsylvania GOP lawmakers out of office in 2006 has turned to almost a resigned acceptance that little will change quickly.

Military service is commonplace in communities across the state. During World War II, one in seven U.S. war fighters was from Pennsylvania. The state sustained heavy casualties then, and later in Vietnam. Today, one in 10 residents is a veteran.

Since the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, 17,000 members of the 19,000-member Pennsylvania National Guard have deployed in support of the nation's war on terror. About 6,000 troops assigned to armories from Philadelphia to Erie have been alerted that they could be leaving for Iraq early next year in what would be the Pennsylvania Guard's largest Iraq deployment yet.

In a recent Quinnipiac University poll, 84 percent of likely Democratic voters in Pennsylvania said going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do. That's similar to Democrats nationally, but higher than the roughly two-thirds of all voters who say it was the wrong thing.

And, 58 percent of likely Pennsylvania Democrats said a timetable should be set for withdrawal, while nearly a third — 29 percent — said troops should be immediately withdrawn.

Nearly 200 troops with ties to Pennsylvania have died in Iraq. More than a thousand troops have come home to Pennsylvania wounded, often to small towns where jobs are scarce.

Clinton is perceived by Pennsylvania's conservative Democrats to have a more cautious, less liberal approach to withdrawing troops than Obama, and that could be a factor in why she's ahead in polls.

Both candidates support a phased withdrawal of troops. Clay Richard, a pollster with Quinnipiac, has this interesting comment on Pennsylvania’s war quandary: "It's kind of a strange dichotomy that they are more skeptical about the war on one hand, and they question why we're there and what we're doing. But on the other hand, there's a built-in patriotism that is not found in other states to the degree that it exists in Pennsylvania."

So through a broad scope of issues… from the war through the economy… observing the Pennsylvania outcome should tell us a lot about what an important segment of this country is thinking.

How about predicting the Clinton vs. Obama outcome in Pennsylvania?  My guess is that it will be very close… with a Hillary win.

Finally about the bitter battle over “bitter.” Personally I think too much was made of the Obama comments. Having said that, I do feel Obama’s words were poorly chosen and he’ll need to be both careful and sensitive in future. As for Clinton’s on-going critique of Obama’s words, when you are in her position you have to make the most out of whatever you’re handed.

Cheers, Bob