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KEY DEMS SEND WORD TO HILLARY: “IT’S OVER!”

I predicted two months ago that North Carolina would seal the fate of one of the remaining Democrats seeking the White House. I believe that happened this past Tuesday… with an impressive double digit victory for Barack Obama. Plus, of course, we had that squeaker in Indiana… a 20-thousand vote Clinton win, out of about a million votes cast. She had to do better this week, a lot better.

His 240,000-vote victory in North Carolina, coupled with her narrow, 18,000-vote triumph in Indiana, all but assured Obama will finish the primary season with a lead in the cumulative popular vote.

But Hillary Clinton is the ultimate fighter. She is all about tenacity with a capital T and apart from George McGovern, a plainspoken man who knows something about losing elections, not a single Democrat of national stature publicly urged Hillary Rodham Clinton on Wednesday to end her campaign for the White House.

They didn't have to. There’s no shortage of other ways to signal, suggest, insinuate or instigate the same thing. Besides it would be unseemly to publicly pressure a historic political figure, a woman who has run a grueling race, won millions of votes and drawn uncounted numbers of new Democratic voters to the polls.

Instead, many Democrats preferred to say softly what the party's 1972 presidential nominee said for all to hear. Barack Obama has won the nomination "by any practical test," McGovern said. He was an early Clinton backer but has now switched his allegiance to Obama.

The bottom line is that barring a sudden huge negative revelation or an act of God, the Illinois senator is on track to become the first black presidential nominee of a major party. The latest Time magazine cover really says it all… sporting a picture of Obama with a million-watt smile… the headline says: “And the winner is….”

Yet Obama and his key spokespeople are giving Clinton some breathing room. "I think that it would be inappropriate and awkward and wrong for any of us to tell Senator Clinton when it is time for the race to be over," said Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, speaking on a campaign-sponsored conference call with reporters. "This is her decision and it is only her decision.” Sen. Chuck Schumer, a staunch supporter of his fellow New Yorker, said, "It's her decision to make and I'll accept what decision she makes." Asked about her chances of still capturing the Democratic nomination, the normally loquacious Schumer fell silent.

Other Democrats preferred to speak more freely, but only on condition of anonymity. They, too, said that Tuesday's primaries in North Carolina and Indiana had effectively sealed the outcome.

SHIFTING SUPERDELEGATES

The only yardstick by which Obama still trails Clinton: the 796 party insiders and elected officials, known as superdelegates, who are free to back either candidate. And if the trend of the past few days continues, Obama will soon overtake Senator Clinton on this final frontier. That will be a tipping point that’s likely to encourage a cascade of endorsements from holdouts and seal the nomination for the Illinois senator.

THE CASH GAP

There’s also the money matter. With six primaries to go, Obama is flush with cash. Clinton’s campaign concedes she’s out of dough… and on Wednesday we heard she had pumped another $6.4 of her own money into her campaign. So Bill and Hillary Clinton have poured $11 from their own nest egg into her increasingly bleak prospects of securing the nomination.

Obama has led the money race throughout the primary season and he already has more offices in the upcoming primary states. He is advertising in several of them, including Oregon and Kentucky. And – as Politico.com noted this week -- the extreme financial imbalance between the two candidates at this phase underscores the strategic advantage Obama gained by forcing Clinton to spend all her money to capture Pennsylvania and stay in the race.

Clinton's dire financial condition was evident Tuesday night when she opened her Indiana victory speech with an appeal for donations to her web site. That request was followed up with a late night e-mail blast to supporters celebrating the win and soliciting money. In that message: "Tonight's victory in Indiana was close, and a margin that narrow means just one thing: every single thing you did to help us win in Indiana helped make the difference."

The question is: How many will need that call for help… with the likelihood their cash will wind up going down the drain?

Now… your turn.

I’ll be back with another THIS POLITICAL WEEK on Fri May 16.

Cheers, Bob

Bob_Tarlau's Blog

THIS POLITICAL WEEK

Bob_Tarlau

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