May 16, 2008 | 8:05 AM
Category:
Political
WHAT’S LEFT
Let’s start with the calendar. Now that West Virginians have given Hillary Clinton her predicted landslide over Barack Obama… with seemingly little consequence, we move onto next Tue May 20 with 60 Democratic delegates at stake in Kentucky and 65 in Oregon.
Puerto Rico (63 delegates) follows on Sun Jun 1… with this LONG primary/caucus season wrapping up with votes in Montana (24 delegates) and South Dakota (23) on Tue Jun 3.
Superdelegates kept moving Obama’s way this week. If that trend continues, he just could have enough votes come Jun 4 to hit the magic number of 2025 (the number of delegates to the Democratic convention needed to win the nomination).
CLINTON: FROM INEVITABLE NOMINEE TO ON THE ROPES
Let’s explore the Clinton campaign, where it rolled along and where it left the tracks. The candidate began her presidential quest armed with talent, tenacity, fame, money, connections and a team that knew how to win. Many people believed her victory in the Democratic nomination battle was a sure thing. Her ultimate failing may have been that she believed it too.
Right out of the starting gate, Clinton has a big problem: polls showed at least 40 percent of Americans would never vote for her. She was too polarizing. It's love her or hate her. Clinton powered through that hurdle in state after state, showing the kind of grit that could make her a winner in November… if her campaign could only get that far.
White men, blue-collar workers, socially conservative Democrats — however you slice the electorate, she brought many of those people to her side, over time, and took the edge off the Hillary haters. Then there was a change in the national mood. Voters, whose No. 1 concern had been ending the Iraq war, started worrying more about the economy. That was a switch from his strength to hers.
Despite all that, her campaign is on the ropes. Clinton is fighting on for a prize few believe she can win anymore, barring some total surprise, a game-changing development. It’s been up and down all year: She was down in Iowa, up in New Hampshire, down in South Carolina. Then, after a roughly even finish with Obama on Super Tuesday, she suffered a string of unanswered losses that, almost before Clinton noticed, put Obama so far ahead in the delegate hunt that all the big-state victories she piled up couldn't close the delegate gap.
Clinton once said she is the most famous person no one knows, meaning Americans don't really get her. As an Associated Press analysis noted this week: Sixteen months after she opened her campaign sitting on a couch in a cozy online video, it's questionable whether people ever discovered the authentic Clinton.
Is she the whiskey-downing pit bull of Indiana? The near-tears softy of New Hampshire? The technocrat of health care reform or the populist who dismisses policy wonks as out-of-touch elitists? Even many of the New York senator's supporters thought she would say anything to win, or be anyone.
She clearly intended to wrap up the nomination in early February. It was a reasonable assumption in 2007 but there wasn't much of a Plan B when that didn't work out in 2008.
Did her loose cannon of a husband shoot a hole through their own hull?
Did Florida and Michigan help to blow it for her in their rogue rush to hold early primaries against party rules, a move that sidelined delegates from two big states open to her?
Questions like that go into the same file with Ralph Nader-2000. Pundits will chew them over without ever being able to prove the answer, just as no one knows for sure whether Nader's candidacy robbed Al Gore of the presidency.
THE EDWARDS ENDORSEMENT
Clinton surely winced – but couldn’t have been very surprised – when John Edwards hooked his wagon onto the Obama endorsement train on Wednesday. It clearly was a move to help solidify support for the party’s almost certain nominee.
The timing of the Edwards announcement caught many off guard, coming as it did the day after Obama’s 2 to 1 loss in West Virginia. Edwards spoke just before the network evening newscasts… more or less obliging them to lead with it… and it was in Michigan, a critical general election battleground state. It was an appearance and endorsement set up for maximum impact. In response, Obama gave one of his most animated addresses in days, much of it devoted to his guest's favorite topic, fighting poverty.
THE SHAPE OF THE MCCAIN VS. OBAMA FIGHT
While still battling Clinton for the nomination… Obama is now acting more and more like the presumptive nominee of his party. Now we see Obama and John McCain both drawing up strategies for taking on each other on in the general election, focusing on the same groups — including independent voters and Latinos — and about a dozen states where they think the contest is likely to be decided this fall.
This could be an extremely unusual fall campaign. Here’s just one reason why: the two sides are now saying they’d be open to holding joint forums or unmoderated debates across the country in front of voters through the summer. McCain’s camp floated the notion…. And Obama quickly said it was “a great idea.” It actually sounds like a terrific idea.
The New York Times notes both Obama – while still trying to wrap up the nomination – and McCain are assembling teams in the key battlegrounds, they’re develop negative advertising and are starting to engage each other in earnest on the issues and a collection of potentially explosive side issues, including age and patriotism.
Obama’s campaign is firing up voter-registration efforts and sending troops to Ohio and Pennsylvania, states that he lost in the primaries. He really must win those to capture the White House. Beyond that, aides to the two men said Latino voters would be central to victory in a swath of Western states now viewed as prime battlefields, including Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.
Speaking of New Mexico—I think Obama’s best choice for a running mate would be Gov. Bill Richardson. He is Hispanic and he has strong foreign policy credentials. He’d be a far better fit for Obama than Clinton.
Who do you think Obama’s VP choice should be? And do you have some advice for McCain about a running mate. Should he go very conservative (Mike Huckabee?) or more moderate?
I’ll be back with another THIS POLITICAL WEEK on Fri May 23.
Cheers, Bob
