May 23, 2008 | 8:35 AM
Category:
Political
DEMS’ PRESIDENTIAL RACE ALL BUT OVER
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton split Kentucky and Oregon this week as expected. But we’re closer to the end… and the delegate math makes him virtually unstoppable. So unless there’s a monumental development, Obama will win enough pledged and superdelegates to capture the party's nomination. Now a big question: Will Hillary Clinton bring her campaign in for landing with a smooth approach and landing… or with a noisy, fiery crash? In other words will Clinton AND Obama manage to leave this race with their futures — and their party — intact?
For Obama, that means winning with class so he endears himself to Clinton's supporters — letting her leave the race on her own terms. And Clinton has to be careful not to damage Obama and make her legacy a weakened Democratic nominee in the fall.
No matter what the New York senator and former first lady wants to do next — angle to be Obama's running mate, make another presidential run or ascend one day to Senate Democratic leader, it's in her interest to leave the 2008 race in a position of strength.
One thing’s virtually certain – during the 10-day hiatus we’re in now between this week’s primaries and the next contest in Puerto Rico on June 1 – there’s no chance she’ll drop out. In fact those close to her say she’s firmly committed to staying in the race through the South Dakota and Montana primaries Jun 3. In the meantime, there’s the meeting of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee on May 31, where the situation involving disputed primaries in Michigan and Florida may be resolved.
A SLOW BUT STEADY COMING TOGETHER
There have been numerous signs over recent days that the Democratic Party is already unifying around Obama – including Clinton’s swift defense of her rival after he came under attack from President Bush over his policy towards Iran.
Both candidates and their surrogates have become markedly less hostile towards each other on the campaign trail, preparing the ground for their eventual reconciliation.
But deep divisions remain among Democratic voters themselves. Two-thirds of Clinton supporters told exit pollsters in Kentucky they would not vote for Obama in November, with more than 40 per cent willing to support McCain and 23 per cent planning to stay home if he is the nominee. No president has won the White House without Kentucky since John F. Kennedy, reinforcing Clinton’s claim that she has the best chance of winning the crucial swing states that provide the key to the White House. That’s another factor that could force Obama to offer the VP slot to Clinton… although he clearly doesn’t have much taste for that.
VP CHATTER SWELLS
Speaking of making VP choices, John McCain is sending the rumor mill about his pick into overdrive… while Democrat Barack Obama has started his own search for a White House running mate.
McCain is treating least three potential candidates to BBQ ribs at his home in Arizona over the Memorial Day weekend. The trio is Florida Governor Charlie Crist, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, and McCain’s former rival Mitt Romney.
Both McCain and Obama must now confront the need to balance their tickets -- McCain with a younger runner mate, Obama with a deputy who can bring blue-collar support or national security experience, and preferably both.
Time Magazine reports former president Bill Clinton now is lobbying for his wife to be selected on an Obama ticket after the long and bruising fight for the Democratic nomination. A friend of the couple tells Time: Bill Clinton "is pushing real hard for this to happen."
Democratic Party insiders say Obama has begun to quietly assemble a team to vet prospective VP candidates. The team appears to be headed by James Johnson, a former chief executive of government-chartered mortgage provider Fannie Mae, who steered the vetting process on behalf of 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry. Look for the Obama VP selection process to really begin in earnest on Jun 4, the day after the final primary contests in Montana and South Dakota.
KENNEDY’S ILLNESS ROBS SENATE OF DEALMAKER
Finally, my thoughts are with Sen. Edward Kennedy and his family – after the diagnosis of a malignant brain tumor. He’s into a tough fight now… the latest of many during a long distinguished, although occasionally troubled political life.
His absence – at least for now – leaves Congress without its best dealmaker as well as its boldest liberal. While he’s best known for his staunch left-wing positions, Kennedy also has long had the willingness to work with right-wing lawmakers to get legislation passed.
Whenever there was a deal to be made on an important piece of legislation, the scion of the famed political family was somewhere nearby despite his celebrity reputation as one of the Senate's last liberal lions. That willingness to buck his own party and cut deals means that Kennedy has left his stamp on a raft of health care, civil rights, welfare, housing, education, foreign affairs and other issues.
The list of issues Kennedy has impacted is long and varied.
+ In 1973, after the Watergate scandal, Kennedy co-sponsored the first bipartisan campaign finance bill. It established new contribution limits and a public financing provision for presidential elections.
+ Kennedy was instrumental in enacting the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990, the State Children's Health Insurance Program, and many other health care initiatives.
+ He was a key Senate backer of Title IX, that 1972 amendment requiring colleges and universities to provide equal funding for men's and women's athletics.
+ He's also been a champion of minimum-wage increases, pushing the most recent effort to raise the minimum wage from $5.15 to $7.25 by 2009.
In a climate that values party loyalty and making political points more than making laws, there is now truly a dearth of potential stand-ins.
When you think about it, John McCain is perhaps the closest, but his alliances with Democrats on campaign finance reform, immigration, torture and other issues has tested the patience of his party's conservative base going into the November election.
Your thoughts please on Senators Kennedy, McCain, Obama and Clinton as we close out THIS POLITICAL WEEK. I’ll be back with you on Fri May 30.
Cheers, Bob
