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by Bob_Tarlau from West Los Angeles

Last Post 14 hours Ago


THIS POLITICAL WEEK
Jun 13, 2008 | 6:31 AM
Category: Political
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LONG BUSY SUMMER AHEAD FOR MCCAIN & OBAMA

While many people will work on their tans this summer, or on summer reading lists or on not working too hard, John McCain and Barack Obama — and their underlings will be working. Working industriously toward an election only one can win.

We’re only 10 weeks away from the start of the Democratic convention in Denver — and the Republicans convene just days later in Minneapolis. In the interim, Republican McCain and Democrat Obama will be focused on strategy, fundraising, shoring up weak spots and exploiting opportunities to prepare themselves for the sprint to Nov. 4.

Here's what they'll be worrying about:

SHRINKING THE ELECTORAL MAP

From now on, the great majority of Americans can be excused if they barely realize a presidential election is under way. They will see virtually no TV ads, visits by candidates or local news coverage.

That's because this campaign, like the last two, will focus on about 15 competitive states. Both parties see the other states as reliably in their camps and not needing attention or totally out of reach and not worth the effort and expense of trying to win them. In either case, these states will largely be ignored.

McCain will start by trying to hold the 31 states President Bush won in 2004 (which are almost identical to the 30 he won in 2000). If he succeeds, he will be president.

Obama must claim one or more of those states, while losing few if any of the ones Al Gore and John Kerry won in their narrow losses to Bush.

The magic number is 18. That's how many electoral votes Obama must add to Kerry's 252, from four years ago, to secure the presidency. For example, if Obama carries Iowa (seven electoral votes) and Missouri (11) without losing any Kerry states, he would become president.

Other states Obama will target as possible pickups are Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and at least one — Virginia — not normally within the Democrats' reach.

He must play defense elsewhere in hopes of keeping McCain from snatching away these Kerry states of ’04: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon, New Hampshire and Maine.

One possible scenario would be excruciating for McCain. If he carried every state Bush won in 2004 except Nevada, New Mexico and Iowa — a plausible outcome — then he and Obama would each have 269 electoral votes. The House of Representatives would break the tie, with each state delegation having one vote. Democrats control more state delegations than Republicans, so Obama almost surely would be named president.

CHOOSING A RUNNING MATE

Analysts question whether a vice presidential choice seriously affects a presidential election, but Obama calls it the most important decision he will make before Election Day. He and McCain have appointed small groups to vet contenders and, if nothing else, the process will fascinate the political chattering class for a while.

Much of that chattering this week had to do with a high profile resignation from the veep vetting team. Jim Johnson, a former CEO leading Obama's search, resigned abruptly on Wednesday after questions about his home mortgage deals became a distraction for a candidate who argues he's not influenced by special interests. What made this worse is that Johnson’s resignation came a day after Obama defended Johnson and dismissed the Republican criticism of him.
In the words of the presumptive Democratic nominee on Tuesday, "I am not vetting my V.P. search committee for their mortgages." Oops.

It was last Saturday that the Wall Street Journal reported Johnson got mortgages with help from the troubled CEO of Countrywide Financial Corp. McCain had accused Obama of hypocrisy for speaking out against Countrywide's role in the subprime mortgage crisis.

All right, so now back to the biz of picking a VP candidate: Obama first must decide whether to tap Hillary Clinton, who battled him to the end and has legions of fans who want her on the ticket. Many political insiders think he will turn elsewhere, but they do not agree on a front-runner.

Possibilities include four vanquished presidential rivals (besides Clinton): New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, and Sens. Joe Biden of Delaware, and Chris Dodd of Connecticut. Former Sen. Sam Nunn of Georgia is often mentioned, as are two prominent female supporters of Obama: Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius.

Less conventional choices for Obama would be Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, or a prominent Clinton supporter, such as Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana. Virginia alone (a GOP-leaning state Obama would love to win) has three possible running mates: Gov. Tim Kaine, Sen. Jim Webb and former Gov. Mark Warner, who is running for the Senate.

Obama is also expected to consider retired military people… among them: Gen. Wesley Clark, who unsuccessfully ran for the Democratic presidential nomination four years ago and retired Gen. James Jones, once NATO’s Supreme Commander.

McCain is likely to look at Republican Govs. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and Charlie Crist of Florida, two battleground states. Other possibilities include former Massachusetts governor and presidential rival Mitt Romney; Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman; South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford; Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin; and former congressman and White House budget director Rob Portman of Ohio, another key state.

A private-sector choice might be Carly Fiorina, former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard.

GETTING TO KNOW YOU

Campaign pollsters say the average person still knows relatively little about Obama or McCain. Both men and their allies will race to fill in the blanks with appealing portraits of themselves and unflattering pictures of the other.

Obama's theme is "change," and he constantly says McCain would carry out "a third term" of President Bush, whose approval ratings approach historic lows. McCain portrays Obama as inexperienced, naive and more talk than action.

Youth and age will be a key subtext. Obama does not directly allude to McCain's age, which will hit 72 on the eve of the GOP convention. But their age difference, 25 years, is the largest in history for major party nominees. Obama must show he's mature and ready; McCain must show he's sharp and vigorous.

RAISING MONEY

Obama has assembled an unprecedented political fundraising machine, raking in $264 million in 16 months. McCain has raised $115 million in 17 months. McCain, assured of his eventual nomination, had his best fundraising month in May, raising $21.5 million. Obama, even though reeling from controversies over his former pastor and still battling Clinton, raised nearly $32 million in April.

Obama should manage to continue this extraordinary accumulation of cash. McCain is improving as he works with the Republican National Committee to expand his donor base.
If the election were being held today instead of in November… who would you say wins?

Back with you on Fri Jun 20. Have a good week!

Cheers, Bob
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DfDeportation read my blog view my photos
Jun 14, 2008 | 9:10 AM

Bratton and Baca disagree on role of race in gang violence

Los Angeles’ two top lawmen are increasingly at odds over the extent to which gang violence is being fueled by racial hatred.

Police Chief William J. Bratton and his top deputies have long cautioned that race-motivated violence remains fairly rare and that gang feuds over turf and drugs are the leading causes of such violence.

But over the last few months, Sheriff Lee Baca has publicly voiced a more ominous view of violence between Latino and black gangs. This week, he went further than ever, saying in a Los Angeles Times opinion piece that “some of L.A.’s so-called gangs are really no more than loose-knit bands of blacks or Latinos roaming the streets looking for people of the other color to shoot. . .
DfDeportation read my blog view my photos
Jun 15, 2008 | 11:34 AM

Wisconsin DNC delegate announces for

Debra Bartoshevich has rattled the Wisconsin Democratic Party with her decision to support another candidate besides the nominee, Barack Obama. The Hillary Clinton supporter won’t vote for Obama but for John McCain after Hillary’s withdrawal — and she insists that she’s not going to change her mind before the general election:
As an avid supporter of Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Democratic primaries, Debra Bartoshevich is not alone in her frustration over Clinton’s defeat.
She’s not alone in refusing to support Barack Obama.
And she’s not entirely alone in saying she’ll vote this fall for Republican John McCain instead.
But what makes her unusual is that she holds these views as an elected delegate to the Democratic National Convention in Denver this summer.
People don’t become delegates by accident. Delegates get selected from a pool of people dedicated to party activism, which is what makes Bartoshevich so unusual. When someone who has put that much energy into the party decides to support the other party’s candidate, that says something about the dissatisfaction — at least as experienced by Bartoshevich.
The question will be whether more Democratic delegates chosen for Hillary Clinton follow her example. I tend to think that a number of factors will keep more from doing so, especially social factors. Bartoshevich will likely become a pariah within her district for quite some time, and her participation in politics will get met with a lot less enthusiasm than before.
Wisconsin may be embarrassed, but the most likely outlet

DfDeportation read my blog view my photos
Jun 16, 2008 | 8:09 AM

Our Children Are Being Victimized By Illegal Aliens
Dave Gibson



June 16, 2008
Contrary to what President Bush claims, family values do stop at the Rio Grande for many illegal aliens. In addition to suppressing wages, bankrupting our hospitals, and over-crowding our jails and public schools, illegal aliens are preying upon our children

In Operation Predator sweeps across the country conducted between 2003-2007, Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents nabbed over 10,700 foreign national child molesters. Many of these predators had been previously convicted of other crimes, and many had already been deported once. The number predators apprehended in the sweeps actually only represent the tip of the iceberg.

In fact, a study conducted by the Violent Crimes Institute reports that between 1999 and 2006, there were nearly 1,000,000 sex crimes committed in the United States by illegal aliens.

Using U.S. Department of Justice, Immigration, as well as state and local law enforcement data, Deborah Schurman-Kauflin of the Violent Crimes Institute determined that there are no less than 240,000 illegal alien sex offenders currently inside the U.S.

A very cursory search on the subject of illegal aliens committing acts of child molestation turned up countless examples of the growing problem. The following are two recent ones:

The suspect in the recent rape of a 13 year old Alabama girl is believed to be an illegal alien. Mobile County Sheriff's detectives are looking for a man named Domingo Lorenzo for the rape which was reported on June 4.

Sheriff´s departm
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Bob_Tarlau

The photo was taken Thr Aug 28 at Invesco Field in Denver. I'm a senior producer with KTTV Fox 11 -- doing investigative and feature pieces for the 10P news and half hour documentaries on subjects light to heavy. I've been in the TV news biz as a producer for over 40 years.

Member Since: 7/20/2006


 

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