Bob_Tarlau's Blog

KEY DEMS SEND WORD TO HILLARY:  “IT’S OVER!”

I predicted two months ago that North Carolina would seal the fate of one of the remaining Democrats seeking the White House.  I believe that happened this past Tuesday… with an impressive double digit victory for Barack Obama.  Plus, of course, we had that squeaker in Indiana… a 20-thousand vote Clinton win, out of about a million votes cast.  She had to do better this week, a lot better.

His 240,000-vote victory in North Carolina, coupled with her narrow, 18,000-vote triumph in Indiana, all but assured Obama will finish the primary season with a lead in the cumulative popular vote.

But Hillary Clinton is the ultimate fighter.  She is all about tenacity with a capital T and apart from George McGovern, a plainspoken man who knows something about losing elections, not a single Democrat of national stature publicly urged Hillary Rodham Clinton on Wednesday to end her campaign for the White House.

They didn't have to.  There’s no shortage of other ways to signal, suggest, insinuate or instigate the same thing.  Besides it would be unseemly to publicly pressure a historic political figure, a woman who has run a grueling race, won millions of votes and drawn uncounted numbers of new Democratic voters to the polls.

Instead, many Democrats preferred to say softly what the party's 1972 presidential nominee said for all to hear. Barack Obama has won the nomination "by any practical test," McGovern said.    He was an early Clinton backer but has now switched his allegiance to Obama.

The bottom line is that barring a sudden huge negative revelation or an act of God, the Illinois senator is on track to become the first black presidential nominee of a major party.   The latest Time magazine cover really says it all… sporting a picture of Obama with a million-watt smile… the headline says:   “And the winner is….”

Yet Obama and his key spokespeople are giving Clinton some breathing room.   "I think that it would be inappropriate and awkward and wrong for any of us to tell Senator Clinton when it is time for the race to be over," said Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, speaking on a campaign-sponsored conference call with reporters.   "This is her decision and it is only her decision.”  Sen. Chuck Schumer, a staunch supporter of his fellow New Yorker, said, "It's her decision to make and I'll accept what decision she makes." Asked about her chances of still capturing the Democratic nomination, the normally loquacious Schumer fell silent.

Other Democrats preferred to speak more freely, but only on condition of anonymity. They, too, said that Tuesday's primaries in North Carolina and Indiana had effectively sealed the outcome.

SHIFTING SUPERDELEGATES

The only yardstick by which Obama still trails Clinton: the 796 party insiders and elected officials, known as superdelegates, who are free to back either candidate.   And if the trend of the past few days continues, Obama will soon overtake Senator Clinton on this final frontier.   That will be a tipping point that’s likely to encourage a cascade of endorsements from holdouts and seal the nomination for the Illinois senator.

THE CASH GAP

There’s also the money matter.  With six primaries to go, Obama is flush with cash.   Clinton’s campaign concedes she’s out of dough… and on Wednesday we heard she had pumped another $6.4 of her own money into her campaign.   So Bill and Hillary Clinton have poured $11 from their own nest egg into her increasingly bleak prospects of securing the nomination.

Obama has led the money race throughout the primary season and he already has more offices in the upcoming primary states.   He is advertising in several of them, including Oregon and Kentucky.   And – as Politico.com noted this week -- the extreme financial imbalance between the two candidates at this phase underscores the strategic advantage Obama gained by forcing Clinton to spend all her money to capture Pennsylvania and stay in the race.

Clinton's dire financial condition was evident Tuesday night when she opened her Indiana victory speech with an appeal for donations to her web site.   That request was followed up with a late night e-mail blast to supporters celebrating the win and soliciting money.   In that message:  "Tonight's victory in Indiana was close, and a margin that narrow means just one thing: every single thing you did to help us win in Indiana helped make the difference."

The question is:  How many will need that call for help… with the likelihood their cash will wind up going down the drain?

Now… your turn.

I’ll be back with another THIS POLITICAL WEEK on Fri May 16.

Cheers, Bob

The rocky last few days for the Obama campaign clearly top THIS POLITICAL WEEK. There was certainly little nuance in his subdued news conference on Tuesday in North Carolina (where Democrats – along with those in Indiana – decide next Tuesday between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton). At that presser, Obama pronounced himself saddened, angered and even outraged by the antics of his former pastor at the National Press Club a day earlier. "I find these comments appalling," he said. "It contradicts everything that I'm about and who I am." What a different tone that was from the finely tuned speech on race that he delivered in Philadelphia in March, shortly after some of Jeremiah Wright's most inflammatory comments first come to light. That clearly reflects the new political reality Obama is now confronting.

It might seem that Obama’s most important audience during that news conference were the voters of North Carolina and Indiana. But actually I think he was speaking most directly to 300 or so remaining undecided Democratic superdelegates, the party regulars who are likely to determine the eventual nominee. They have become increasingly concerned in recent days that the Democratic frontrunner lacks the fire and the fight he will need to prevail in November. Hillary Clinton frequently reminds us she’s long had that fire and fight. And she’s right, she does. I’ve always thought she’s better positioned to take the fight to John McCain, and especially the crafty Republican campaign machine behind him, in November. (Remember Swift Boat – expect GOP operatives to roll out something just as harsh… whichever Democrat claims the nomination). Not that Obama wouldn’t battle hard. The question is – with the Rev. Wright mess looming over him – would it be hard enough?

Did you catch Hill with Bill the other night… not Bill Clinton but Fox’s Bill O'Reilly – who has made something of a cottage industry of bashing Bill and Hillary over the last 15 years. But O'Reilly loves ratings, and his large right-wing audience of white male voters is attractive to a Clinton campaign working to take advantage of a suddenly stumbling Obama. So Wednesday night, Clinton and O'Reilly sat down together. Topic number one: Reverend Wright.

Among the many negative things that Wright has said is that the United States Government could be behind the AIDS epidemic and that the U.S. engages in terrorism. About that, Clinton declared: "People have to decide what they believe, and I sure don't believe the United States government was behind AIDS." And about Obama on Wright, she told O’Reilly: "He spoke out forcefully yesterday. I think that he made his views clear finally, that he disagreed. And I think that's what he had to do."

As one Democratic strategist put it: "You could sense, if not a turning of the tide over the past couple of days, that people were getting back on the fence." Indeed, on Tuesday, Clinton picked up the endorsement of one important superdelegate: North Carolina Governor Mike Easley, who is backing her despite the fact that much of the rest of the state's political establishment has lined up behind Obama, considered a strong bet to win the state's primary next week. 'There's been lots of 'Yes we can, yes we should,' " Easley said in a dig at Obama. "Hillary Clinton is ready to deliver.''

The setbacks for Obama's seemingly charmed presidential campaign have come one on top of the other lately. There was his admittedly clumsy comments in a private fundraiser about "bitter" small-town voters who "cling" to religion and guns, questions about his association with a 1960s-era terrorist and nit-picking in a recent debate over why he doesn't wear an American flag pin on his lapel.

But potentially worst of all was his association with Wright, particularly after the retired pastor launched what amounted to a media tour, and suggested that any efforts that Obama had made to distance himself was posturing. "Politicians say what they say and do what they do based on electability, based on sound bites, based on polls," Wright said dismissively of his former congregant. Even former President Jimmy Carter, who normally avoids commenting on the presidential race, told CNN that Wright had "really been damaging" to Obama's presidential campaign.

Clinton appeared this week to be gaining on Obama in both of the key primary states voting next Tuesday. Though Obama leads in nominating contests, elected delegates and the all-important fundraising stakes, Clinton's overall message – not just what she’s saying about Rev. Wright -- seems to be hitting home after her campaign-saving victory in Pennsylvania.

In Indiana, a Howey-Gauge poll in Indiana released Tuesday had Obama up by just 47 to 45 percentage points, well within the margin of error, with eight percent of likely primary voters undecided. Clinton had trailed by 15 points in the same poll in February. A Public Policy poll had Clinton up eight points, weighting the average of recent polls in the state by RealClearPolitics.com in her favor, showing her up two points.

Indiana is a true battleground between the rivals, as it is packed with blue-collar white voters feeling the economic pinch who normally favor Clinton, but much of it is blanketed by the media market in Obama's hometown of Chicago.

In North Carolina, a state where Obama hopes a large African-American population will help carry him to victory, he leads the RealClearPolitics average by 10 points, but a Survey USA poll Tuesday had him up by only five.

Now we have a deadline imposed by Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean – who says either Clinton or Obama must drop out of the Democratic presidential race after the June primaries in order to unify the party by the convention and win the election in November.

But Dean still isn’t saying which candidate should drop out, only that it should happen after all the primary voters have been to the polls. That will be on June 3. Dean also said that while the party rules say Democratic superdelegates can wait until the party's August 25 convention to make up their minds, that would be too late to unify the party and defeat McCain.

I think what Howard Dean says is true: The Democrats “really can't have a divided convention. If we do it's going to be very hard to heal the party afterwards.”

Again your take on all of this is very welcome. Thanks to those who write me on a regular basis. Your comments often make me smile (and sometimes frown). Either way, they’re great to get.

One more thing… a program plug: Please watch THE NAVY WAY, hosted by Carlos Amezcua, photographed by Ken Moore, edited by Mark Sudock, with graphics by Miguel Valdivia on Thr May 8 at 10:30P. I produced and wrote the program, which is about a side of the Navy you may not be familiar with – from what goes into the training of a Navy SEAL to the wonderful humanitarian work of the hospital ship Mercy, one of America’s greatest ambassadors. And discover a remarkable wildlife habitat inside the naval weapons station at Seal Beach. Again that’s THE NAVY WAY next Thursday – at 10:30P, right after the Fox 11 news.

And I’ll be back with another THIS POLITICAL WEEK blog the next day, Fri May 9.

Cheers, Bob

We’re certainly into the twilight of this long presidential primary calendar and this morning (Fri Apr 18) comes word of a dramatic reversal in the Obama vs. Clinton clash. An Associated Press-Yahoo! News poll finds a clear majority of Democratic voters now say Sen. Barack Obama has a better chance of defeating Republican Sen. John McCain in November than Sen. Hillary Clinton.

While Obama and Clinton are both sustaining dents and dings from their lengthy presidential fight, the former first lady is clearly suffering more. Democratic voters no longer see her as the party's strongest contender for the White House.

Voters of all types have gotten a better sense of Obama, who was an obscure Illinois legislator just four years ago. As more people moved from the "I don't know him" category in the AP-Yahoo! News poll, more rated Obama as inexperienced, unethical and dishonest. And 15 percent erroneously think he's a Muslim, thanks in part to disinformation widely spread on the Internet.

But Obama's positive ratings have climbed as well, while Clinton — widely known since the early 1990s — has been less able to change people's views of her. And when those views have shifted, it has hurt her more than helped. The New York senator's ratings for being honest, likable, ethical and refreshing have fallen since January, and Obama scores higher than she does in all those categories.

Key dates remaining on the primary calendar are the votes in Pennsylvania next Tue Apr 22 and in Indiana and North Carolina two weeks later. My emphasis this week is on Pennsylvania.

First, it’s of note that while Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton continue to compete against each other in Pennsylvania, both have opened a lead over John McCain there. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Pennsylvania finds Obama leading McCain 47% to 39% and Clinton with a 47% to 38% advantage. That’s a significant change from a month ago when McCain was essentially even with both Democrats.

It’s especially interesting to note that the Democrats have gained ground on McCain during their Pennsylvania Primary battle. Just the opposite happened in neighboring Ohio. McCain took the lead in the Buckeye State following the Democratic bickering and has retained that lead over the past month. Democratic struggles in Michigan also appear to have benefited McCain.

Rasmussen figures the six-week pace of the Pennsylvania Primary has worked to benefit the Democrats’ general election prospects. Over the past month, favorable ratings for both Democrats have improved a bit. Obama is now viewed favorably by 57% of the state’s voters, Clinton by 53%. A month ago, those figures were 53% and 50% respectively. McCain is now viewed favorably by 50%, down from 55% in March.

Trailing in delegates, Clinton has staked her candidacy on a strong showing in the Pennsylvania primary. Obama has eroded Clinton's lead in several state polls and an upset could irrevocably damage her candidacy.

Second, there was one Obama-Clinton pre-Pennsylvania primary debate this week and that was in Philadelphia on Wednesday evening. The most interesting part was Clinton saying emphatically – for the first time -- that Obama can win the White House this fall, undercutting her earlier efforts to deny him the Democratic presidential nomination by suggesting he would lead the party to defeat. When pressed about Obama’s electability, she said: “Yes, yes, yes.” Asked a similar question about Clinton, Obama said "Absolutely and I've said so before" — a not-so-subtle dig at his rival who had previously declined to make a similar statement about him.

Third, it’s important to take note that while Pennsylvania is military serviced-oriented, it’s also war-weary. Both candidates promise to end the war, but in a state with a remarkable history of venerating military service, how that end should be achieved weighs heavily with many voters. Polling shows Democratic voters overwhelmingly disapprove of the war. What divides them is a quick withdrawal versus a longer drawdown of troops.

For many voters, the anger over the war that helped push five Pennsylvania GOP lawmakers out of office in 2006 has turned to almost a resigned acceptance that little will change quickly.

Military service is commonplace in communities across the state. During World War II, one in seven U.S. war fighters was from Pennsylvania. The state sustained heavy casualties then, and later in Vietnam. Today, one in 10 residents is a veteran.

Since the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, 17,000 members of the 19,000-member Pennsylvania National Guard have deployed in support of the nation's war on terror. About 6,000 troops assigned to armories from Philadelphia to Erie have been alerted that they could be leaving for Iraq early next year in what would be the Pennsylvania Guard's largest Iraq deployment yet.

In a recent Quinnipiac University poll, 84 percent of likely Democratic voters in Pennsylvania said going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do. That's similar to Democrats nationally, but higher than the roughly two-thirds of all voters who say it was the wrong thing.

And, 58 percent of likely Pennsylvania Democrats said a timetable should be set for withdrawal, while nearly a third — 29 percent — said troops should be immediately withdrawn.

Nearly 200 troops with ties to Pennsylvania have died in Iraq. More than a thousand troops have come home to Pennsylvania wounded, often to small towns where jobs are scarce.

Clinton is perceived by Pennsylvania's conservative Democrats to have a more cautious, less liberal approach to withdrawing troops than Obama, and that could be a factor in why she's ahead in polls.

Both candidates support a phased withdrawal of troops. Clay Richard, a pollster with Quinnipiac, has this interesting comment on Pennsylvania’s war quandary: "It's kind of a strange dichotomy that they are more skeptical about the war on one hand, and they question why we're there and what we're doing. But on the other hand, there's a built-in patriotism that is not found in other states to the degree that it exists in Pennsylvania."

So through a broad scope of issues… from the war through the economy… observing the Pennsylvania outcome should tell us a lot about what an important segment of this country is thinking.

How about predicting the Clinton vs. Obama outcome in Pennsylvania?  My guess is that it will be very close… with a Hillary win.

Finally about the bitter battle over “bitter.” Personally I think too much was made of the Obama comments. Having said that, I do feel Obama’s words were poorly chosen and he’ll need to be both careful and sensitive in future. As for Clinton’s on-going critique of Obama’s words, when you are in her position you have to make the most out of whatever you’re handed.

Cheers, Bob

The Hillary Clinton-Barack Obama duel has been filling most of this blog in recent weeks… enough to where some of you loyal readers might be thinking: Hey, what about that Republican fellow who has already secured his party’s nomination? You’re right, so I’m blogging this week about Senator John McCain.

He’s long been a GOP agitator, but now McCain is easing into the role of its newfound leader.   He has met abroad with world leaders, intensified fundraising and taken control of the party apparatus. He is thinking about running mates and is introducing himself to the country. He's also made a few missteps and watched a challenging political terrain that favors Democrats grow more troublesome for Republicans.

A CBS/New York Times poll at the start of this month found Americans are more dissatisfied with the country’s direction than at any time since a major poll started asking about the subject in the early 1990s. Eighty-one per cent say they believe “things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track.” That 81 per cent is up from 69 per cent a year ago… and 35 percent in early 2002.

McCain seemed to be addressing that downbeat view when, on Thursday, he called for federal aid for well-meaning homeowners who can't pay their mortgages. That was clearly an attempt to fend off criticism that he has been indifferent to the housing crisis and the market upheaval it has spawned. He sketched out a plan that would cost up to $10 billion to help 200,000 to 400,000 homeowners trade burdensome mortgages for manageable loans. As usual in these kinds of overtures, nothing said about where the money would come from and exactly who would be eligible. Hillary Clinton was quick to call the McCain plan a halfhearted version of her own efforts. And from Obama: "I'm glad he's finally decided to offer a plan. Better late than never."

McCain certainly knows what he’s up against in trying to keep the White House in Republican hands in spite of the dust kicked up by the most unpopular President in at least a generation. Yet in the weeks since he clinched the GOP nomination, his White House campaign has entered an important new phase and he’s managed to move forward on all fronts — from message to mechanics — to position himself for the November election.

There have been speed bumps on the road. McCain faced fallout from an endorsement by a televangelist who has made anti-Catholic comments and confronted questions about his ties to lobbyists. He invited criticism with a speech that derided aggressive federal intervention in the housing crisis but offered no immediate relief for homeowners threatened with foreclosure. And, he mistakenly said Iran was allowing al-Qaida fighters into its country to be trained and returned to Iraq. On the 40th anniversary of Martin Luther King’s assassination, he found himself having to apologize for initially opposing establishment of a national holiday marking MLK’s birthday.

In spite of the hurdles, McCain is saying: "I'm glad to be where we are. We're going to keep working hard." Polls put him in strong contention against either Clinton or Obama in a head-to-head match up. And McCain has the luxury of focusing on the general election while his Democratic rivals remain embroiled in their tight contest. And each day we hear Clinton and Obama assail McCain in hopes of appearing to be the strongest one to take him on in November.

Obama is fond of saying: "John McCain wants to continue the war in Iraq. I want to end it." And one of Clinton’s Pennsylvania TV ads proclaims: "John McCain just said the government shouldn't take any real action on the housing crisis, he'd let the phone keep ringing."

As Democrats bicker, these are the areas McCain needs to keep his focus on:

+ Money: Fundraising is arguably his biggest weakness and, thus, should be his highest priority. He raised only $11 million in February to a combined $80 million for Clinton and Obama, and has been slow to sign up many of Bush's big donors. Obama reported raising $40 million in March; Clinton said she raised $20 million. McCain is likely to surpass his February total but still trail his rivals. He held dozens of fundraisers last month and set up joint fundraising accounts with the Republican National Committee to encourage donations.

+ Unity: Trying to heal wounds from a divisive GOP primary is a high priority for a candidate who has spent decades bucking the party on issues that resonate with conservatives. In hopes of getting critics to swing behind him, McCain recently appeared with Bush in the White House Rose Garden and received Nancy Reagan's endorsement. He also campaigned with former GOP rival Mitt Romney to show solidarity. He’ll also need to play to the party’s middle-roaders and political independents… a tough tight-rope act especially given his continuing hard sell for the Iraq war.

+ Message: Speaking to a broader electorate, McCain, a former Navy pilot held prisoner during the Vietnam War, has cast himself as an experienced wartime commander in chief and statesman with his own vision, despite Democratic efforts to paint him as a Bush clone. McCain visited the Middle East, including Iraq, and Europe, where he met with allies. Stateside, he staged a weeklong biographical tour and began an ad campaign.

+ Vice President. McCain has a list of some 20 names from which he could choose a running mate and says he's in the "embryonic stages" of selecting someone. Aides say little to no significant vetting has occurred. The goal is to select someone before the nominating convention in early September, and McCain says he's mindful of the enhanced importance of the task because of his age. He is 71 and would be the oldest president elected.

Do you have any thoughts on who McCain should be considering for VP? Condi Rice perhaps? There sure was a lot of talk about that this week… but I’m tossing the chances of that happening into the “pretty slim” box.

I’ll be blogging at you again next Friday for another THIS POLITICAL WEEK. In the meantime, I’ll be looking forward to your comments.

Cheers, Bob

Last Friday, I wrote that North Carolina’s Tue May 6 election would likely be the decider of the Hillary Clinton vs. Barack Obama battle.  Part of my thinking was that Clinton has been so far ahead in the Pennsylvania polls that victory there would be seen as status quo, a confirmation that the race continues.   Yet according to a couple of indicators this week, perhaps we won’t get that far.

For one thing, the Clinton campaign is cash starved… with big bills in her “to be paid” basket.  Secondly, her once rock solid Pennsylvania lead is shrinking – fast.  The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in PA has Clinton leading Obama by just five percentage points, 47% to 42%. For Clinton, that five-point edge is down from a 10-point lead just a week ago.  She enjoyed a 13-point margin in mid-March and a 15-point advantage in early March.

Rasmussen's statement on these findings says:  “Support for Clinton slipped from 52% early in March, to 51% in mid-month, 49% a week ago, and 47% today. During that same time frame, support for Obama has increased from 37% to 42%.”

Over the last two weeks, the news for Obama has gotten much brighter.  First, The nightmare presented by his former pastor is on the back burner (perhaps until the GOP revives in the fall), with polls showing his campaign hasn’t really been hurt by Rev. Wright’s disgusting remarks… or Obama’s failure to confront him while a member of Wright’s church.

Second, Obama has also picked up some key congressional endorsements… including one from Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey… and a second female senator, freshman Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota.   She had recently voiced concerns about the rancorous tone of the Democratic primary, and said she was now forced to choose because she found remaining uncommitted difficult.   In her words:  "Between Barack and a hard place, I chose Barack."   Klobuchar joins Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill in backing Obama.

And there was an important Obama endorsement from one of the Democratic Party’s top foreign policy figures, Lee Hamilton, a former U.S. House member from Indiana, where an important primary vote occurs May 6.   Hamilton, who co-chaired the commission that investigated the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and headed the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, said he was impressed by Obama's approach to national security and foreign policy.

Third, the Obama campaign is flush with cash… and is already spending a good chunk of that to run TV ads in the remaining states.   Figures out yesterday (Thursday), show that that the Illinois Senator raised more than $40 million in March.  Clinton raised half that.

Now let’s say that Obama really is able to pull off an upset in the Keystone State.  I believe a Clinton loss in Pennsylvania would effectively end the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination.  Obama would certainly pick up the momentum to win most if not all of the remaining states – including that all-important North Carolina contest.

If it turns out to be Barack Obama vs. John McCain in the November election… Obama will face a tough sell job to bring over Hillary’s loyal base.  Rasmussen finds just 56% of Clinton’s current supporters say they are likely to vote for Obama against John McCain. Forty percent of Clinton voters in Pennsylvania say they are not likely to vote for Obama.

Just 21% of Pennsylvania’s Primary Voters say that Clinton should drop out of the race while 18% would like Obama to leave. Those figures are similar to results from a recent national survey. Fifty-one percent (51%) in Pennsylvania say it’s very likely the contest will not be resolved until the convention in Denver. That figure includes 61% of Clinton voters and 38% of those who support Obama. Overall, another 33% say a convention decision is Somewhat Likely.

Clinton – out on the Pennsylvania – campaign trail this week says she has something in common with legendary film boxer Rocky Balboa -- she's not a quitter.  Recalling a famous scene on the steps of the Philadelphia Museum of Art from the 1976 Oscar-winning film "Rocky," Clinton said that ending her presidential campaign now would be as if "Rocky Balboa had gotten halfway up those art museum steps and said, 'Well, I guess that's about far enough.  Let me tell you something, when it comes to finishing a fight, Rocky and I have a lot in common. I never quit. I never give up.”

The day she does quit – if it comes to that – will be a tough one for both her and the former president.  I wonder what she does then, endorse Obama?  At this point that’s hard to imagine but there have been stranger political bedfellows.

So if those 33% who say a brokered convention in late August is Somewhat Likely are actually right, how much damage does a floor fight do to the Democrats in the fall campaign?   I think not much.   For one thing, if the battle actually continued that far (and I don’t believe it will) the convention news coverage would be unbelievably heavy… surging right over the Republican Convention (or coronation) which comes the very next week.  McCain could find himself facing a case of damaged momentum.

OK, so I’ve posed some questions—and given you my take.  Now it’s time for yours.

Have a good week ahead… and I’ll be back here with THIS POLITICAL WEEK next Friday.

Cheers, Bob