Dave_Osterberg's Blog

HEMMERS REPORT

Snook season is closed until Sept 1st. You can still catch and release. Make sure you return them to the water as quickly as possible. Most of the snook are close to the beach. Pinfish is the best bait at this time.

The kingfish run is starting to slow. You can troll up a few around the artificial reefs. A gold spoon and a #2 planer will do the trick.

Grouper are still in the 60ft range. The larger ones are farther out. Live pinfish will work best.

Trout action is starting to slow. Look for them near the drop-off of the flats. A slowly worked jig will draw the most strikes.

Over the weekend the country of Myanmar (which used to be called Burma) experienced a cyclone equivalent to what we would know of as a category 3 hurricane. As last check this storm has killed at least 15,000 people. That begs this question; how in this day and age could this happen. We in the US sometimes have days notice that a storm is coming. First I will start by telling you that this is one of the poorest countries in the world. They don't have TV's, internet, cell phones, etc. Most of them probably had no idea this storm was coming.

When I was in college, I did a paper on Bangladesh. There was a cyclone in the 1970s, that killed over 100,000 people. Thats astonishing!! Most of the people worked and lived near the rice patties. That is their living. That is how they feed their families. Can you imagine not knowing a storm is coming, and for those that did, they couldn't do anything about it. It's not like they have cars to drive away. This is the exact same thing that happened in Myanmar. Now the fear is disease. With no homes, clean water, or food around, thousands and thousands are left to find a way to survive.  Often times polluted water can leade to many water borne diseases and many more deaths. The good news about this catastrophe is that the country has allowed the United Nations to send food, water, and medical supplies to help. That will no doubt help to raise morale and save a few lives. I know our country has its problems, but sometimes you have to sit back see how lucky we do have it, compared to some of these third world countries.

HEMMERS REPORT

Snook are moving through the docks on the West Side of Tampa Bay. Fish the fronts of the docks during low tide. When the tide is high, fish under the dock. A scaled sardine is the bait of choice.

Kings are still hanging in the ship channel. Look for markers that have bait schools on the surface. Jig up the baits and slow troll near the bait schools.

Trout, bluefish, mackerel and ladyfish can be found over the grass flats that are 3 to 4ft deep. Strawberry and motor oil colored jigs are working great. Drift the grass until you locate the fish. Once found, you can re-drift that area.

Tarpon are starting to show-up on the beach in Tarpon Springs. The bridges in Tampa Bay are also producing. The Skyway is good during the day and the Gandy is good at night.

On the last day of the recent Hurricane Conference, Dr. Chris Landsea from the National Hurricane Center presented talk about Global Warming and hurricanes. As I have mentioned before,  the great Miami hurricane of 1926 is the benchmark they use to estimate what further storms may do. If that same type of storm was to occur today it could cause 140-157 billion dollars in damage, double of what Hurricane Katrina caused.  So when they normalized that storm for 2008 damage, they went back and did the same with all of the destructive storms from the 1920s and 1930s. What they found was staggering. With the way the US coastline has been built up, if any of those type storms were to occur today the damage amounts would be staggering. So based on damage estimates alone you can't conclude that global warming is influencing hurricanes.

There seems to be a trend for more storms overall and more short-lived storms. After research they have concluded that technological advances are the reason for this. Several decades ago they didn't have satellites and the aircraft data like they do now. This plus the advanced computer modeling is allowing us to see storms they couldn't see back then.

Then there were two things that actually got my attention that he mentioned.  First was when he made the statement that gloabl warming may actually decrease the amount of storms. Yes indeed wouldn't that be interesting. Even though sea surface temps continue to rise, if indeed global warming continues this may cause more wind shear in the Tropical Atlantic.  Think of it like a constant El Nino. During one, it tends to cause more wind shear and less storms overall. It doesn't mean that big ones can't form, just that there may be fewer. So it would be an interesting battle between wind shear and warmer water as to which would be the dominant factor in this scenario.

And the last fact is a bit alarming. In the 1920s and 1930s there were a lot of major hurricanes that hit Florida. GIven the same multi-decadal swing of storms we are now in a more active period and this may likely happen again.

HEMMERS REPORT

Grouper fishing is good in the 60 to 130ft range. Start the action going with frozen sardines before switching to live bait. Large pinfish and Spanish sardine are the best live baits.

Redfish are schooling in large numbers in the lower parts of Tampa Bay. Most of the schools are real spooky. Approach the area with a push pole or a trolling motor on low speed. Look for areas that have nervous water or mullet schools.

Snook are working their way toward the beach. They are in the residential canals south of Weedon Island to the bridges that link the mainland to the beach. A threadfin or scaled sardine is the bait of choice.

Look for the kingfish in the shipping channel. Start at Egmont Key and work your way out. Most of the kings are small, but last weeks Tournament winner came out of the Egmont hole.

I wanted to talk a little this week about a storm surge study that the Hurricane Center has been working on.  Let me first start by talking about storm surge itself. It's defined as  water that is pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the storm. The wind causes the water to pile up higher than the ordinary sea level. It can range from just a few feet to in extreme cases over 30 feet. When the Saffir-Simpson scale was created to rate hurricanes they associated certain storms surges with wind speeds and categories, but now we are learning that this is not the case. Take the case of Hurricane Dennis in 2005. The big bend area of Florida has a huge storm surge even though the hurricane made landfall 180 miles away. Near where the storm made landfall, there was very little storm surge. What happened was the storm surge got trapped over the continental shelf and thats why the highest surge was so far away from the center. Well that wasn't the only case of the surge not matching the situation. Lets take 2 big hurricanes Charley and Katrina. When Charley made landfall its storm surge wasn't a huge problem, but it brought higher winds than Katrina. When Katrina made landfall, it believe it or not was a weaker storm than Charley but there was a 30 foot storm surge in Mississippi. This was a huge eye opener that we couldn't just go by wind speed alone to estimate storm surge.  After a lot of research and re running models inclusing the SLOSH (which estimates storm surge) it was determined that storm surge is dependent on the size of the wind field and central pressure as well. The larger the wind field the more potential the surge has. Let me give you a hypothetical. If Storm A had winds of 100mph, but a small wind field, and Storm B had 100mph winds but the hurricane and tropical storm force winds were triple in diameter the storm surge would be a lot bigger; but yet they are storms of the same strength. Katrina was a huge huge storm, it's wind field massive. That plus it's sheer strength early on allowed the surge to develop and get bigger and bigger. Charley was a small storm. I think for a cat 3-4 storm to hit Punta Gorda and Tampa to have a 12-14 mph wind it must be a small storm.  So you have to kind of throw out the Saffir Simpson scale in terms of storm surge, recalculate the SLOSH model and pay more attention to size rather than strength in helping to determine storm surge. This will be an interesting hurricane season to see how this theory pans out.  

Snook fishing in upper Tampa Bay is hot. Most of the larger schools are in the Gandy area. Scaled sardines are the bait of choice. Look for them along the mangrove shoreline and swash islands.

The lower part of Tampa Bay has good numbers of trout and redfish. The trout are hanging over areas of grass and sand. Target the 3 to 4-foot zones. The reds are schooling with the mullet. The hot bait for reds is a threadfin herring.

The strong winds over the past few days have scattered the kingfish schools. The best place to locate them is the shipping channel. Start at markers 5 and 6 then work your way out. They will strike a Spanish sardine that can be jigged up around the cans.

I wanted to talk for a second about a problem which the Hurricane Center first talked about last year but did touch on again this year; the Quickscat satellite. Last year the director of the Hurricane Center at the time Bill Proenza openly criticized his bosses and also the imminent failure of the satellite. He said if and when it fails hurricane forecasting accuracy would decrease dramatically. Well fast forward to this season, and with a new chief, they are playing damage control. Here's where I need to put everyones fears to rest.

First off the Quickscat satellite  is an earth-observing satellite that provides wind speed and direction information over oceans to NOAA. It was launched June 19, 1999, with a 3 year life span, but it continue to chug on. It's primary purpose was not to focus on tropical cyclone, but it has proven instrumental in helping with developing tropical systems. When tropical waves form out over the open oceans planes aren't sent to investigate unless they are threatening land. So thats where the twice a day pass of the Quickscat comes in. It actually does a great job at estimating these developing storms, and determining where the low level circulation is. As these storms reach Tropical Storm status, the satellite continues to provide important data for the forecasters. Here's what people don't know about this satellite. IT DOES NOT DO WELL FOR HURRICANES. It suffers from all kinds of convective feedback in determining the surafce winds and circulation. Not to say it is not helpful, but it helps far more with weaker storms than it does hurricanes. That is something that most people didn't know. When a storms even comes near land, aircraft will be flying around the clock inside the storm to achieve data. This to me is far more valuable data since it is constant, and with an ever changing storm you don't have to rely on a 2 pass a day satellite. I am not saying the Quickscat is not useful because it is, but if it was to fail the Hurricane Center shouldn't skip a beat. There is a similar satellite that the Europeans use, but it is not as good, and they have postponed another sattelite launch until  somewhere around 2016. So no worries, as long as we have everything else, I think the stellar forecasts from the Hurricane Center will continue.

HEMMERS REPORT

 

SNOOK ARE FEEDING BEST IN THE UPPER PARTS OF Tampa Bay. A scaled sardine is the best bait. Free-line where you see the snook schooling. Light tackle will get the most strikes.

Tarpon are showing up around the Skyway Bridge and the cuts inside of the bridge. A free-lines pinfish is the bait of choice. Cast in front of rolling tarpon and let the pinfish do the rest.

Kingfish are hanging in the shipping channel. Start at markers 7 and 8, then work your way out. You can jig up trolling baits around the markers.

The trout action remains hot. Most of the action is over areas that have sand and grass. Work the areas that are 3 to 4ft deep.

 

Over the next few weeks, I am going to blog about some of the things I overheard at this years National Hurricane Conference. Some of it is old hat, some of it new. For my first blog let me talk about a lecture from Craig Fugate who is the Director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management.  His lecture focused on Florida Catastrophic Planning.

First off I have to say that Hurricane Katrina a few years back taught all emergency managers valuable lessons. I guess we all realized that no matter how prepared we thought we are, it has to be better. So the FDEM(Florida Division of Emergency Management), has set up their planning on a storm like the great Miami Hurricane of 1926. That storm devastated Miami, Lake Okeechobee, then returned to the Gulf of Mexico near Tampa before making another landfall near Pensacola. If such a storm of the same magnitude and size was to hit the same area today damage estimates could be between 130 and 150 billion dollars!!!!!! Using LIDAR which is high resolution digital elevation maps, and the US National Grid, the state can pinpoint areas that would be at most risk.  After the storm is over their primary objectives would be to secure the area and make sure everyone was safe. Then and only then could the state begin the process of helping people recover. When we tell you to prepare three days worth of supplies for your family, we mean it.  The state is counting on this. They need that first 72 hours to secure and make afe the effected area. So no matter how fantastic the state disaster plan may be, if you don't do your part, the whole system breaks down. Craig promised, we will be there, but you need to mkae sure you are ready for three days. And I do believe he is right. Think of it this way, you don't rely on the Red Cross or the state to provide food and water each day, why would you do this after the storm. Craig also made a point that there has to be some localization of this help. For examples, if there are restaurants and shops which are able to provide food, shelter, and water why can't they help instead of everybody going hungry until the state gets there. Again another great idea. Most people have cash on hand for just this very reason.  I am sure that the state or federal government would help out these restaurants afterwards. It was interesting listening to Craig because at times he felt like my dad lecturing me. But you know what, he is right!!! It is an individuals responsibility to be prepared for these storms. We try to drill it into peoples head, but many do not listen. So before you go blaming everyone else, ask yourself did I prepare for 72 hours first.

HEMMERS REPORT

Look for the kingfish action to increase during the next few weeks. Use trolled spoons to locate the school. Then switch over to live bait.

Redfish schools are getting spooky. Heavy fishing pressure has made the reds unfriendly. It’s best to anchor and let the school come to you. A corked pinfish is seldom turned down.

The trout action is outstanding. This is the best trout fishing in Tampa Bay since the redtide outbreak We should release trout over 20 inches. These are females full of roe that will help restock the bay to past levels.

Grouper are hanging in the 60 to 120ft range. A live pinfish is the bait of choice.

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On March 20th, NOAA released their spring outlook on the drought situation in the US. For some in the southeast it was good news, for others, including most of us, not so good. It shows for the Tampa Bay area south, the drought will persist or it will get worse. From Tampa East and Northeast, drought development is likely. Please see chart.

LINK: NOAA's spring drought predictions

I know what you are thinking it seems like its been a wet year so far. Indeed it has, but you have to remember we went 12-18 months of below normal precipitation, so 2-3 three months isn't going to make up for that. I am in the business of wanting my predictions to be right 100% of the time, but this is one prediction I hope is wrong.

HEMMERS REPORT

Large redfish schools are showing up in all parts of Tampa Bay. Most of the schools are holding 100 to 400 fish. A quiet approach is necessary to keep the school from spooking.

Small kingfish are hanging over the artificial reefs that are 40ft deep. Trolling spoons will help you locate which reefs are holding kings. The strong winds of the past few days will push the kingfish deeper until the water clears.

Trout, bluefish, pompano and ladyfish are still hanging over the grass piles that are in 3 to 4ft of water. Drift these areas while fan casting a jig to locate the fish.

Sheepsead are hanging under docks and bridges close to a pass. Some of the large breeders can be found around rocks and structure out in the Gulf.

Wow, the numbers are out, and it looks like a very odd winter indeed. According to NOAA the average temperature around the US and the world was the coolest since 2001. Around the US it was the 54th coolest winter since records began in 1895. Not only were temps above normal, but precipitation was as well. In fact mountain snowpack was 150% abover average in a large part of the west. The northeast winter was the fifth wettest on record, while parts of New England had their second wettest. There are many areas which posted their all time record snow totals. Among them were Concord, NH, Burlington, VT., and Montreal, Canada. But not everyone benefitted from this winter precip. Even though the southeast was average for rainfall overall, the drought continues.  As of the end of February, 2/3 of the SE remained in some type of drought, with more than 25% of it in extreme to exceptional drought. It will be interesting to see what happens this spring, but there will likely be some flooding up north and out west due to the heavy snowpack.

HEMMERS REPORT

The kingfish run has landed in our back yard. The schools are hanging over reefs in 40ft of water. Most are being caught on spoons trolled behind #2 planers. Mono leaders will produce more strike than wire. Bring a few extra spoons incase you get cut-off.

The snook bite should get better as the water temperature climbs. Whitebait and sardines are the bait of choice. Most of the schools are still in the upper parts of Tampa Bay.

Trout, bluefish and pompano fishing is strong in the lower parts of the bay. Look for the trout and blues in 3 to 4ft of water that has a mixture of grass and sand. Fish for the pompano where you see them skipping on the surface