David_Aldrich's Blog

A lot of changes in the Tropics are expected over the next several days, thanks to Gustav and Hanna.

Here are a few resources that you may want to access:

CLICK HERE

To compare current storms with historical storms.  CLIQR Output

CLICK HERE

My Fox Hurricane

CLICK HERE

Hurricane City

Last month, astronauts on board the International Space Station (ISS) witnessed a beautiful display of noctilucent or "night-shining" clouds. The station was located about 340 km over western Mongolia on July 22nd when the crew snapped this picture:

Above: Noctilucent clouds photographed by the crew of the ISS: more.

Atmospheric scientist Gary Thomas of the University of Colorado has seen thousands of noctilucent cloud (NLC) photos, and he ranks this one among the best. "It's lovely," he says. "And it shows just how high these clouds really are--at the very edge of space."

He estimates the electric-blue band was 83 km above Earth's surface, higher than 99.999% of our planet's atmosphere. The sky at that altitude is space-black. It is the realm of meteors, high-energy auroras and decaying satellites.

People first noticed NLCs at the end of the 19th century after the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa. The Indonesian supervolcano hurled plumes of ash more than 50 km high in Earth's atmosphere. This produced spectacular sunsets and, for a while, turned twilight sky watching into a worldwide pastime. One evening in July 1885, Robert Leslie of Southampton, England, saw wispy blue filaments in the darkening sky. He published his observations in the journal Nature and is now credited with the discovery of noctilucent clouds.

Scientists of the 19th century figured the clouds were some curious manifestation of volcanic ash. Yet long after Krakatoa's ash settled, NLCs remained.

"It's a puzzle," says Thomas. "Noctilucent clouds have not only persisted, but also spread." In the beginning, the clouds were confined to latitudes above 50o; you had to go to places like Scandinavia, Siberia and Scotland to see them. In recent years, however, they have been sighted from mid-latitudes such as Washington, Oregon, Turkey and Iran:

Above: Noctilucent clouds over Mt. Sabalan, a 15,784 ft extinct volcano in northwestern Iran. Photo credit: Siamak Sabet. [more]

"This year's apparition over Iran (pictured above) was splendid," says Thomas. The Persian clouds appeared on July 19th, just a few days before the ISS display, and were photographed from latitude 38o N. "That's pretty far south," he says.

The genesis and spread of these clouds is an ongoing mystery. Could they be signs of climate change? "The first sightings do coincide with the Industrial Revolution," notes Thomas. "But the connection is controversial."

NASA is investigating. The AIM satellite, launched in April 2007, is now in polar orbit where it can monitor the size, shape and icy make-up of NLCs. The mission is still in its early stages, but already some things have been learned. Thomas, an AIM co-Investigator, offers these highlights:

1. Noctilucent clouds appear throughout the polar summer, are widespread, and are highly variable on hourly to daily time scales. A movie made from daily AIM snapshots shows the 2007 NLC season unfolding over the north pole: watch it.

Right: A daily snapshot of noctilucent cloud activity over the North Pole in 2007. Click on the image to set the scene in motion. Credit: AIM/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio.

2. There is a substantial population of invisible noctilucent clouds. Thomas explains: "NLCs are made of tiny ice crystals 40 to 100 nanometers wide—just the right size to scatter blue wavelengths of sunlight. This was known before AIM. The spacecraft has detected another population of much smaller ice crystals (< 30 nm) that don't scatter much sunlight." Clouds made of these smaller crystals are stealthy and hard to see, but a key part of the overall picture.

3. Some of the shapes in noctilucent clouds, resolved for the first time by AIM's cameras, resemble shapes in tropospheric clouds near Earth's surface. AIM science team members have described the similarities as "startling." The dynamics of weather at the edge of space may not be as unEarthly as previously supposed.

These findings are new and important, but they don't yet unravel the central mysteries:

Why did NLCs first appear in the 19th century?

Why are they spreading?

What is ice doing in a rarefied layer of Earth's upper atmosphere that is one hundred million times dryer than air from the Sahara desert?

AIM has just received a 3-year extension (from 2009 to 2012) to continue its studies. "We believe that more time in orbit and more data are going to help us answer these questions," says Thomas.

Meanwhile, it's a beautiful mystery. Just ask anyone at the edge of space.

Author: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA

Ragweed pollen is back !

And it doesn't help that we've been so dry lately.

Rain has a way of temporarily cleansing the atmosphere (providing some relief), but until we get our first frost, conditions are going to continue to be tough for allergy-sufferers.

CLICK HERE for tips on how to cope.

Living With A Star

August 19, 2008: What if you woke up one morning and found your whole planet had been swallowed by the atmosphere of a star?

Get out of bed, look out the window. Auroras are dancing along the horizon. Dark sunspots crackle overhead—each little 'pop' more powerful than a nuclear bomb. On TV, a weather forecaster warns astronauts, "a solar flare is sure to erupt," although he can't say exactly when. Moments later, the satellite signal begins to flicker.

Where is this place?

Welcome to planet Earth.

"It's true. We live inside the atmosphere of the sun," says Lika Guhathakurta, program manager of NASA's Living with a Star (LWS) program.

Right: Earth, photographed by Apollo 17 astronauts. [more]

At first glance the sun seems so self-contained, a crisp round ball in the noontime sky. But the edge we see is just the beginning. The sun has a hot, riotous atmosphere called "the corona" that reaches from the sun's surface, past Earth, all the way to Pluto and beyond. The corona is seldom seen, only during a total eclipse, but it is there.

Like any good atmosphere, the corona has weather, and lots of it. There are billion-ton coronal mass ejections; high-energy radiation storms; and a relentlessly-blowing solar wind that gusts up to a million mph. Every comet, asteroid and planet in the solar system is exposed to these elements.

Below: A coronal mass ejection or "CME" recorded by the ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). [more]

Our planet is better protected than most. We have a thick atmosphere and global magnetic field to hold space weather at bay. In fact, if we stayed on Earth, the sun's weather systems would hardly affect us, causing no more than an occasional power outage or radio blackout.

And therein lies the problem:

"We're not staying on Earth," says Guhathakurta. "Civilization is spreading into space."

  More than 500 active satellites circle the Earth. We rely on them for TV, telephone, internet, GPS navigation and weather forecasting; all are vulnerable to space weather. Humans orbit Earth, too, onboard the International Space Station. The ISS is located inside Earth's magnetic field, so it enjoys a degree of protection, but future astronauts en route to the Moon and Mars will be outside the magnetic bubble. Their spaceships are going to be in direct contact with the sun's atmosphere.

NASA's Living With a Star Program was formed in 2001 to deal with this reality. "If we're going to live inside the sun's atmosphere, we need to learn more about it—especially how to predict the storms," says Guhathakurta.

The basic strategy is the same as weather studies on Earth: "We're going to launch a fleet of 'weather stations' – spacecraft that observe different aspects of sun’s atmosphere." LWS has five missions1 in various states of development. Together they will surround and explore the sun in ways no spacecraft has done before.

#1: The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). "Get ready for jaw-dropping photos," says Guhathakurta. A camera onboard the observatory will take HDTV quality photographs of sunspots and solar flares, revealing the onset of storms in never-before-seen detail.

Right: SDO undergoes testing at NASA's Space Environment Simulator. [larger image]

Pictures alone, however, do not tell the whole story. NASA solar physicist Alex Pevtsov explains: "Solar activity is a bit like a puppet show. If you want to understand the motion of the puppets, you need to see the strings. On the sun, the 'invisible strings' are magnetic fields; they penetrate the sun's atmosphere, guiding the flow of heat and orchestrating mighty explosions. SDO will be able to produce detailed maps of magnetism on the sun, revealing the strings for all to see."

But who (or what) is pulling the strings? "That would be the sun's magnetic dynamo," says Pevtsov. "It lies hidden beneath the surface of the sun." Fortunately, SDO can look down there, too. The technique is called helioseismic imaging. By monitoring the sun's vibrating surface, SDO can probe the stellar interior in much the same way that geologists use seismic waves from earthquakes to probe inside Earth. In this way, mission scientists hope to map the ebb and flow of the sun's inner magnetic dynamo, the root of all solar activity.

Status: SDO is built and almost ready to go. "Right now, SDO is in a thermal vacuum chamber getting tested for the rough ride to space."

#2: Solar Probe Plus "This could be the most exciting mission of all." It is a heat-resistant spacecraft designed to plunge deep into the sun’s atmosphere where it can sample solar wind and magnetic fields in situ. "No spacecraft has ever been as close to the sun as Solar Probe Plus will go, only 7 million km from the surface. That's unexplored territory, and we expect to learn a great deal about the sun's atmosphere by going there."

Above: A simulated view of the sun illustrating the trajectory of Solar Probe+ during its multiple near-sun passes. [full story] [larger image]

Status: Solar Probe Plus is still in an early design phase, called "pre-phase A" at NASA Headquarters. It is expected to launch no earlier than 2015.

#3 Solar Sentinels. "We're going to surround the sun," says Guhathakurta. Three well-instrumented probes from NASA and a fourth (the Solar Orbiter) from the European Space Agency will station themselves around the sun's equator, providing the first truly global view of solar activity. "Imagine trying to figure out Earth's climate by watching only one side of the planet. Impossible! Yet that's what we've been doing with the sun." The one-sided view from Earth limits studies of solar climate and weather—a problem Solar Sentinels will remedy.

Status: "We've just finished the Science and Technology Definition Team report, which lays out the whole strategy for Solar Sentinels." Launch is expected no earlier than 2015.

Below: An artist's concept of the Radiation Belt Storm Probes.

#4 The Radiation Belt Storm Probes. "There's no point in studying the sun if you don't understand what it does to Earth," declares Guhathakurta. This mission makes the crucial Sun-Earth connection. Wisps of the sun's atmosphere can become trapped by Earth's magnetic field, inside radiation belts, where energetic particles lie in wait for astronauts and satellites trying to leave or simply orbit the planet. The Radiation Belt Storm Probes (two of them) will explore these regions and discover how they are populated and energized by space weather.

Status: The two probes are under construction at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab and slated for launch no earlier than 2011.

#5 The Ionosphere-Thermosphere Storm Probes. Two more probes will orbit Earth and study the upper reaches of Earth’s atmosphere where air makes "first contact" with solar UV radiation. This is a realm of electrically charged particles that strongly affect the propagation of radio waves, influencing almost all forms of telecommunication and GPS navigation. It is also a place where the atmosphere breathes in and out in response to changes in solar UV heating. An outward breath can envelop and drag down satellites, while an inward breath decreases the drag. The Ionosphere-Thermosphere Storm Probes will monitor the response of this layer to all kinds of solar storms.

Status: "This is an important mission, but not yet funded," says Guhathakurta. "Right now we have our hands full with the others."

Indeed, there's a lot to do when you're Living with a Star.

Author: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA

Southwest Florida needs to brace for a nasty storm.  Hurricane Fay will likely hit by Tuesday morning.  For the latest radar and track of Fay...

CLICK HERE

Towns that may get the worst of Fay include (but not limited to...)

Naples, Bonita Springs, Fort Myers, Cape Coral, north to Port Charlotte.

For MY Tropical Tracker...

CLICK HERE

CLICK HERE

Why is this a difficult concept to grasp ?  Take a look at the sad reality about science in America.

CLICK HERE

"According to Science and Engineering Indicators 2006, 25% of Americans think that the sun revolves around the earth. Almost 60% believe lasers work by focusing sound waves. And, over 40% of Americans believe there is scientific justification for ESP—or "ESPN" if you've seen Lindsay Lohan's Mean Girls."

Tonight, the sun went down at 8:01 PM.

Wednesday, the sun sets at 7:59 PM.

Sadly, the time has come to say good-bye to the "really long days" of summer.

We are losing roughly 2 minutes and 15 seconds of daylight this week as we settle into the middle of August.

Hello,

My family and I were at Island Beach State Park at the New Jersey shore today when a severe thunderstorm moved in from the west about 12:30PM.  My son Christopher and I noticed rotation in the clouds.  We watched for about 10 minutes and saw a rather large funnel cloud form.  (If you look to the left of the flag pole you can see a much smaller funnel cloud.)  This picture was taken just before the life guards and park staff (which did a great job) made all visitors move inside the pavilion building bathrooms and changing rooms.  The full width of the large funnel cloud touched down just before we went inside.  While inside the building, the wind kicked up along with heavy rain and hale.  The funnel clouds passed over the island about ½ to 1 mile where we were located.  What an exciting day, we’ll never forget it!

Feel free to use the attached photo and information provided in this email in your news casts.  A “shout out” would be appreciated.

Blake Family

Cinnaminson, NJ

 "Hi David, I have been an avid watcher of Fox29 for a long time,(and a die hard weather nut!!) but have never sent in an email. We had some severe weather roll through Williamstown, NJ this morning, and I have never seen hail like we experienced. My husband and I took a few pictures which I have attached for you to check out, and if you want to show them on your broadcast that would be awesome!!

Thanks,

Andria Iovino"

____________

Time to look to the EAST.  The Perseid meteor showers are here !

And the weather late tonight into, early Tuesday looks mostly clear.  The moon will set at 2 A.M.  This will reduce the glare and increase your visibility.

Enjoy ! ---- David

______________________

Mark your calendar: The 2008 Perseid meteor shower peaks on August 12th and it should be a good show.

"The time to look is during the dark hours before dawn on Tuesday, August 12th," says Bill Cooke of NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center. "There should be plenty of meteors--perhaps one or two every minute."

Right: A Perseid meteor over Joshua Tree National Park in California, August 11, 2007. Credit: Joe Westerberg. [more]

The source of the shower is Comet Swift-Tuttle. Although the comet is far away, currently located beyond the orbit of Uranus, a trail of debris from the comet stretches all the way back to Earth. Crossing the trail in August, Earth will be pelted by specks of comet dust hitting the atmosphere at 132,000 mph. At that speed, even a flimsy speck of dust makes a vivid streak of light when it disintegrates--a meteor! Because, Swift-Tuttle's meteors streak out of the constellation Perseus, they are called "Perseids."

(Note: In the narrative that follows, all times are local. For instance, 9:00 pm means 9:00 pm in your time zone, where you live. )

Serious meteor hunters will begin their watch early, on Monday evening, August 11th, around 9 pm when Perseus first rises in the northeast. This is the time to look for Perseid Earthgrazers--meteors that approach from the horizon and skim the atmosphere overhead like a stone skipping across the surface of a pond.

"Earthgrazers are long, slow and colorful; they are among the most beautiful of meteors," says Cooke. He cautions that an hour of watching may net only a few of these at most, but seeing even one can make the whole night worthwhile.

A warm summer night. Bright meteors skipping overhead. And the peak is yet to come. What could be better?

The answer lies halfway up the southern sky: Jupiter and the gibbous Moon converge on August 11th and 12th for a close encounter in the constellation Sagittarius: sky map. It's a grand sight visible even from light-polluted cities.

For a while the beautiful Moon will interfere with the Perseids, lunar glare wiping out all but the brightest meteors. Yin-yang. The situation reverses itself at 2 am on Tuesday morning, August 12th, when the Moon sets and leaves behind a dark sky for the Perseids. The shower will surge into the darkness, peppering the sky with dozens and perhaps hundreds of meteors until dawn.

Above: The eastern sky viewed during the hours before sunrise on Tuesday, Aug. 12, 2008.

For maximum effect, "get away from city lights," Cooke advises. The brightest Perseids can be seen from cities, he allows, but the greater flurry of faint, delicate meteors is visible only from the countryside. (Scouts, this is a good time to go camping.)

The Perseids are coming. Enjoy the show!

Author: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA

Here's the breakdown so far this year...

20 days at 90 degrees or higher.

Normal:  20.5 days

90 degrees    6 days

91 degrees    2 days

92 degrees   4 days

93 degrees    0 days

94 degrees    1 day

95 degrees   4 days

96 degrees   1 day

97 degrees   1 day      6/9/2008

98 degrees   1 day      6/10/2008

For those of you who are too young to remember Walter Cunningham, he was the Lunar Module Pilot of Apollo 7.

Apollo 7 was a 3 man mission that orbited the Earth for 11 days in October of 1968.

Walter writes a very interesting article today that should be read by everyone.

CLICK HERE

July 29, 2008: On Friday, August 1st, millions of people in Greenland, Siberia, Mongolia and China—especially China—are going to witness a total eclipse of the sun. The Moon's cool shadow will sweep across the landscape, silencing wildlife with sudden darkness, filling the sky with the sun's ghostly corona, transforming ordinary folks into life-long eclipse chasers. Mainstream media gives this sort of thing saturation coverage.

Totality is a big event, but its not the only event on August 1st. Don't forget the partial eclipse!

Right: A partial eclipse over Texas, photographed June 10, 2002, by Science@NASA reader David Guerra.

While millions of people experience totality, billions will experience a fractional coverage of the sun with many delights of its own. The partial eclipse can be seen from about a quarter of Earth's surface, including all of Asia, most of Europe, the Middle East, India, and the Maine corner of North America. If you live in one of those areas, get ready for fun.

The first thing to remember about a partial eclipse is don't look at it. Even the tiniest sliver of sun left uncovered by the Moon can badly hurt your eyes. They don't call it "blinding sunlight" for nothing.

Instead, look at the ground.

Beneath a leafy tree, you might be surprised to find hundreds of crescent-shaped sunbeams dappling the grass. Overlapping leaves create a myriad of natural little pinhole cameras, each one casting an image of the crescent-sun onto the ground beneath the canopy.

Above: Crescent sunbeams photographed during a partial eclipse in June 2002. [more]

No trees? Try this trick: Criss-cross your fingers waffle-style and let the sun shine through the matrix of holes. You can cast crescent suns on sidewalks, driveways, friends, cats and dogs—you name it. This opens up a seldom-tapped well of possibilities for hand shadows, like the crescent-eyed turkey shown above.

Unlike the total eclipse, which lasts no more than a few minutes while the sun and Moon are perfectly aligned, the partial eclipse goes on for more than an hour--plenty of time for shadow play. The fun begins at sunrise in Quebec, mid-morning in Europe, after lunch in Iraq and late afternoon in India. Graphic artist Larry Koehn has created five animated maps that show when to look: North America, Europe, Middle East, India and Asia.

Above: An animated eclipse map of Europe created by graphic artist Larry Koehn. Global and additional regional maps can be found on his web site ShadowandSubstance.com. Copyright 2008, all rights reserved.

Of particular interest is a broad line stretching roughly from Nova Scotia, through Quebec and diagonally across the Hudson Bay. There, on Friday morning, August 1st, observers may witness a fiery crescent rising from the waters of the Bay or the Atlantic, dimmed to human visibility by low-hanging clouds and mist. Don't stare. Even "dim suns" are perilous.

At such a time, the temptation to use a telescope or binoculars can be powerful. Again, care is required. Sunlight focused through optics is hot and dangerous to the eyes. Direct viewing should only be attempted with the aid of a safe solar filter. (These are found easily enough by typing "solar filter" or "eclipse glasses" into your favorite search engine.) Or, to be on the safe side, use the 'scope as a projection device, shining a bright crescent on a wall or sidewalk for everyone to see.

When all is said and done, setting all fun aside, it must be admitted that there is no substitute for totality. So NASA, in partnership with UC Berkeley and the Exploratorium, will broadcast the August 1st eclipse from a remote location in China, deep inside the path of totality. Tune into NASA TV this Friday at 6 am EDT for complete coverage.

Author: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA

Lightning kills approximately 62 people per year in the U.S..

This is a 30 year average based on data from 1977 to 2006.

So far, we have lost 23 people in 2008 due to lightning. 

CLICK HERE

2008 U.S. Fatalities

Please protect yourself and your family by reading the TOP 10 myths.

CLICK HERE

10 Ten Myths of Lightning Safety