The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is today (September 10th) and a strengthening “Ike” is slowly moving towards the coast of Texas. Now that the storm is out over the warm Gulf of Mexico, it will likely strengthen into a major category 3 hurricane. Some forecast models project that the storm could even become a category 4 before landfall late Friday night. The environment that Ike is entering is very favorable for strengthening. The wind speed and direction are fairly consistent (LOW wind shear) with height and the water is very warm. Moreover, the storm will pass over a “loop current” in the Gulf of Mexico. This is an area where the warm water extends down quite deep. Hurricanes gain and maintain their strength from warm tropical waters. 80-degree water is needed for hurricanes to develop and grow. The latest observations show water temperatures in the 85-87 degree range out over parts of the Gulf. Below is the track that forecasters at the National Hurricane Center think that Ike will take.
So far there have been 10 named storms (tropical storms) in the Atlantic this season. The average number for an entire season is 10 and we are only at the peak of the season. Lately there has been a lot of discussion and debate as to whether the number of hurricanes and their intensities are on the increase due to global warming. I am in the process of reading a great book on the subject: “Storm World: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle Over Global Warming” by Chris Mooney. The author does a great job breaking down this topic. I highly recommend it.
A lot of people ask me if southern California is vulnerable to a tropical system. The answer is YES! A category one hurricane made landfall in the San Diego area on October 2, 1858. Tropical storms have impacted coastal southern California as well. However, typically the water temperatures along our coast are a bit too cool for hurricanes. During an average late summer and early fall, the water warms into the middle 70's. On some occasions, like during an El Nino episode, the water can approach 80 degrees. Some scientists believe that this may become more frequent with global warming.
We'll continue to update Ike on this web site and during our newscasts. Have a great rest of the week everyone-
| Member Comments | Total Comments: 10 |
|
|
vmendoza18
Sep 12, 2008 | 11:49 AM |
|||||
|
DfDeportation
Sep 13, 2008 | 11:12 AM |
|||||
|
sebar
Sep 13, 2008 | 9:47 PM |
|||||
|
aveclocal
Sep 13, 2008 | 11:57 PM |
|||||
|
Timn
Sep 15, 2008 | 10:51 AM |
|||||
|
Shans-Deb
Sep 15, 2008 | 11:32 AM |
|||||
|
Rick_Dickert
Sep 16, 2008 | 10:25 AM |
|||||
|
thornyone
Sep 16, 2008 | 3:33 PM |
|||||
|
Shans-Deb
Sep 16, 2008 | 9:41 PM |
|||||
|
Timn
Sep 22, 2008 | 8:29 PM |
|||||
|
|||||
What's up everyone!? I'm Rick Dickert and I do the weather, traffic and breaking news from SkyFox every morning. I love my job..flying..up in the weather..etc..etc..Every day is different. I love the ocean, surfing, hiking and everything about the environment. Blog with me and let me know what is on your mind! A few songs in my IPOD now: -White Stripes “Icky Thump” -Finger Eleven “Paralyzer” -Foo Fighters “The Pretender” -Pennywise “Perfect People” & “Disconnect” -Joss Stone “Tell me ‘bout it” -Feist “1234” -Tiger Army “Forever Fades Away” -Eddy Vedder “Society” (entire Into the Wild Soundtrack) -Fall Out Boy “Thanks for the Memories” Good Movies I’ve seen Recently -Into the Wild -American Gangster How I Spend my Weekends -Napping -Eating -Another Nap -Running -More food -Surfing -More sleep -Hanging with friends and family
Member Since: 7/4/2006