It looks like we will make it through June without any tropical storms making landfall in the United States. We have never had a direct hit by a hurricane in the Bay area in July which bodes well for us, too.

I've noticed that there has been a lot of shear in the Caribbean Sea this season. The shear ventilates any tropical waves and prevents them from concentrating heat near the center. As a result, shear is an inhibiting factor for tropical cyclone development. Let's hope this trend continues into the heart of the hurricane season, which occurr in August, September and October.

There has been new research showing that African dust also inhibits tropical cyclone developement. There have been several episodes this year of large areas of African dust moving into the Atlantic, as well.

As we move into the most active part of the hurricane season beginning  in about a month let's hope the shearing and dust continues.

HEMMERS REPORT

The end of tarpon season is near. Most of the large schools have been replaced with smaller pods. Some schools will have 6 to 10 tarpon, but most will be pairs and singles. You can still find these schools when the wind is out of the east. A westerly wind will dirty near shore waters and make sight fishing difficult.

Schools of Bonita and mackerel are feeding on the schools of small baitfish moving out of Tampa Bay. Look for the birds flocking over the surface. Now look under the birds for fish striking the surface. When you locate the fish, cast a small spoon where the fish are striking and retrieve it at a fast pace.

Grouper and snapper are feeding best in waters that are 100 to 140 feet deep. A large live pinfish works best on the grouper and a small pinfish or frozen sardine is the bait for snapper.

Here's a clip from the news:

On Friday, NASA launched the Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason 2 satellite into orbit to begin a detailed study of ocean currents, sea-surface height, and surface topology. Scientists hope to use the data gathered by Jason 2 in order to better understand weather patterns and global warming. Further details about the mission objectives (PDF) are also available. Quoting NASA's press release: "Combining ocean current and heat storage data is key to understanding global climate variations. OSTM/Jason 2's expected lifetime of at least three years will extend into the next decade the continuous record of these data started in 1992 by NASA and the French space agency Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales, or CNES, with the TOPEX/Poseidon mission. The data collection was continued by the two agencies on Jason 1 in 2001. Compared with Jason 1 measurements, OSTM/Jason 2 will have substantially increased accuracy and provide data to within 25 kilometers (15 miles) of coastlines, nearly 50 percent closer to shore than in the past."

With all of the past data and the new data to come, it would seem to me that there would be a correlation between this data and the paths that hurricanes follow.

Is anyone working on this?

Yippee!!!! We are finally getting some rain... not the normal spring/summer schedules but...  Do not know which board to post this on... Weather? Traffic?  Maybe both.

There are certain rules for driving in the rain... obvious is to drive slower, avoid areas that flood, pull into a parking lot if the rain is coming down so hard that you can't see! 

Just because you drive a ATV/SUV does not mean that you can drive the way you do.  Just because you can drive through high water at a high rate speed does not mean that you should.  Think about others.  The other day I drove through an area that the streets were flooded.  I was new to the area and did not know that the road flooded.  I slowed down and rode in the midde of the road, as I was trained, pulling over when on cars came  toward me.  The drivers of the ATV/SUV's?  They sped down the road and the splashes blinded other drivers.

And... do not drive with your flashers on!  The flashers are meant to be used when you are at a stop... I got caught in one of Sunday's storms and was driving on Waters when I saw at least 2 drivers with their flashers on! 

Usually, this time of year we get afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Occassionally, in the summer months the weather pattern is conducive for morning rains than sometimes continue or train into the afternoon. June 21 was one of those days. Tropical moisture coming northward from the Caribbean combined with moisture coming from the north ahead of an unusual front in north Florida. The result was that rain was focused across Central Florida and instead of just moving inland kept redeveloping in the Gulf and moving ashore in the same areas.

Officially, Tampa had a record daily rainfall amount on June 21,2008  of 3.08". The old record was 2.76" set in 1928. This also brings us to an above normal total for the month of June.

The other difference in the rainfall pattern yesterday was that everyone in the entire viewing area got at least some rain. In our "normal" summer pattern the activity is more randomly scattered. One nice effect of the widespread rain is that, in addition to filling the aquifer somewhat temperatures were held down. Instead of reaching our normal high of 89, Tampa only reached 83. This was a nice change from the heat of our long summers.

HEMMERS REPORT

Tarpon fishing should be red-hot during Fridays and Saturdays afternoon outgoing tide. They will be feeding on the crabs that flow out the pass of Tampa Bay. The Skyway Bridge and Egmont Key are the spots to target. You’ll need to catch the crabs with a long handle dip net. Look for the crabs around the weed lines. Free-line the crabs where you see lots of boats fishing. The drill is to drift through the area and move to the out side of the group before moving up-currant to do another drift.

Snook will be feeding on the same outgoing tide. Stay on the outside of the swash channel and cast your baits where you see snook in the swash. Threadfins and pinfish are the baits of choice.

Permit are hanging over the reefs 3 to 7 miles out. A small blue or pass crab will get the permits attention. Cast the crabs where you see the permit flashing under the surface.

Mackerel are feeding on the schools of small bait near Egmont Key. Look for the birds and cast a small spoon where you see the Mac’s striking the surface.

Do any of you ever worry about the changes we are seeing in our weather patterns? I wonder how many people throughout the US will be relocating in hopes of dealing with better weather? That may be one of the changes we will see in our World over the next 2 years. Many calling the weather patterns the part of the beginning of the end of the World, however I think it's more like the Earth Evolving and changing once again. So it will be an end to what we know and how we do live and a beginning to a change in how many will adapt to the changes happening around them. Are you ready?

More of a question I have had for awhile than blog but others can post their comments.

Why is it that no new agency post the yearly rain fall totals for the area on their web sites. I ask as it seems that it changes from time to time depending on what purpose it may serve.

You have probably seen video of the unprecedented flooding in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Cedar Rapids is on the Cedar River and has flooded hundreds of blocks of the city including the downtown area. One report that I viewed showed what looked like white water rapids in the main downtown street. Until now, the worst flooding occurred in 1993, when the River was 7 feet above flood stage. In the current 2008 flood, the river is 19.8 feet above flood stage.

In the last 10 days, nearly 12 inches of rain have fallen upstream from the river. The reason is that the weather pattern seems to be "stuck" with fronts frequently becoming stationary over the Midwest and a persistant strong jet stream that guides surface lows through the same area over and over again. The persistant jet stream, accentuated by cooler than normal temperatures north of the jet stream and warmer to the south has also been responsible for the unusually strong and prolific tornado season.

One additional feature that has added to the historic flooding is, believe it or not, the remains of a tropical feature. Remember Tropical Storm Alma in the Pacific, which indirectly caused Tropical Storm Arthur in the Caribbean from May 29- June 2? I looked at some weather maps between June 2 and June 8. Some of the moisture from Arthur moved northwest into Mexico and was drawn northward and eventually northeastward into Iowa where it interacted with a stationary front. The front focused the moisture in a narrower area and caused torrential rains in the Cedar River watershed on June 7 and June 8.

So, even though it is a bit of a stretch, Arthur, in combination with an active jet stream and several persistent stationary fronts was indirectly related to providing some of the moisture responsible for the flooding in Cedar Rapids

HEMMERS REPORT

The grouper are feeding best in 100 feet of water or deeper. Large live pinfish is the bait of choice. Work small ledges and rock piles. The best action is when the tide is moving.

Trout are schooling in the passes. Most are in the 18 to 23 inch range. They are feeding on small jigs and white bait. Look for them in areas that have a sharp drop-off.

Catch and release action on snook is hot. Most of the snook are feeding on free-lined threadfins and pinfish. The best action is in the swash channels during a strong tidal flow.

Tarpon can be found around area bridges and passes. The hot bite has been threadfins and pinfish during the incoming tide and crabs during the outgoing tide. Work the areas where you see tarpon rolling on the surface.

I thought that this was an interesting story out of Reno Nevada. A couple of months ago there was a rash of earthquakes in that area. There were close to 200 small earthquakes in just a couple of days. All told there were about 1000 quakes over the past two months.   Most were very light, but they did experience a 4.7 magnitude quake. Then they just stopped. Scientists ahve been baffled as to why so many, and are fearful that a mugh larger quake could be on the way. Well fast forward to June, and the quakes have begun again.  On Sunday 15 quakes struck, and a couple of them were above 3.0.  Some of the larger tremors were strong enough to sway high rises and knock items off of shelves. Again scientists have no idea why these cluster quakes are occuring, but it's not something for which they are letting their guard down.   

On  Monday June 9th, I was watching the morning weather with Dave Osterburg, who I think is the best weatherman there, however he said something that I believe could be incorrect. I have been servicing swimming pools for several years here in Hernando County.

Backwashing your pool water and using it for lawns or landscaping isn't recommended. Pool water contains many different   harsh chemicals. Chlorine, muriatic acid, etc.....The chemicals can be detrimental to all types of grass and plants.  Unless the water does not contain these harsh chemicals, I wouldn't recommend it. Of course, at this time of the year, if pools do not have these chemicals, they'll probably be green.

HEMMERS REPORT

TARPON FISHING HAS BEEN HOT DURING THE AFTERNOON OUTGOING TIDES THAT FOLLOW THE NEW AND FULL MOON. THE BEST BAIT IS A FREE-LINER CRAB. THE SKYWAY AND EGMONT KEY ARE THE SPOTS TO FISH.

REDFISHING IN LOWER TAMPA BAY IS SLOW. MOST OF THE SCHOOLS ARE SMALL AND HARD TO FIND. WHEN LOCATED, OFFER THEM A SMALL PINFISH UNDER A CORK.

SNOOK ARE HANGING IN THE SWASH CHANNELS ALONG THE BEACH. THE SEASON IS CLOSED BUT YOU CAN CATCH AND RELEASE SNOOK UNTIL THE SEASON OPENS ON SEPT FIRST.