The Philadelphia Weather Authority

Rob Guarino you do a great job in what you do you are the only tv meteorologist in the area that blog with its viewers that have a passion for weather just like you do. with out you forecasting the weather on tv in the philadelphia area there might be a big form of confusion in the forecast for the people in the Delaware valley but you present the forecast so well that even when the most complex storm is easy to understand.
if ti was not for you I may not have enjoyed tracking the weather as much as I do now with everyone on your blog. sometimes i like to the RPM MODEL at fox is you..

so Rob Gruarino i would like to thank you for the great job that you do and what ever station you move to weather it is in the Delaware valley or not I will follow you. weather I can see it on tv or not or have to go online to your new stations site I will stick with you.

best of wishes Rob Guarino for many more years of forecasting in the Delaware valley.

It is still warm

It is October and it is still 12 degress but is there a theory for this well I think there is remember when I told you about the dry weather in the south. and how cold fronts would fall apart when they reach the south well that was because an area of high pressure was trapped in the southern us states by cold fronts coming from the north and and tropical systems moving south of the gulf toward the west. well once changes looked good for the big high moving off the coast a few systems formed well off the Carolina coast which blocked the high pressure from moving again. those systems stayed off the coast but brought some rain to south and north Carolina. well the high pressure was so strong that it effected our weather too, it prevented tropical systems from coming up the coast. which meant that we would start a dry period of our own. about a week ago the high moved off the coast and then moved up north a little father. right now th high is about 300 miles off the coast of long island new york and we are on south western side of it.

what the high pressure has done to our weather over the last week.

well over the last week temperatures have been above normal due to the southeast flow of air coming from the high pressure. but also now cold fronts have been blocked out by the high cutting our chances of rain by 80% it would take a very strong cold front to push the high pressure out of the way and bring us cooler to more fall like temperatures.

What needs to happen for us to get fall like weather.

what needs to happen is the gulf of Mexico and the tropics need to be more quiet so that the southern jet stream can move back down to the south so the 5400 line can slow start to make its way down from Canada. right now the force from the southern flow of air is stronger than the force from the northern flow of air. but I think next week a cold front will push the southern jet stream a bit father to the south than previous cold fronts and the 5400 line will hold steady a little farther south. then around October 14th a very strong cold front will come through keeping things in the mid to upper 50s with frost in some spots at night.

I do think this could be a track change where summer weather ends later with fall weather from mid October to late November then we go right in to winter with winter weather ending a few weeks later than normal in the coming years. true global warming could be the cause of this but I think we have a climate change and a bit of global warming combine.

Tell me if you agree with me or not and tell me why by adding a comment below or emailing me at josephvodvarka@gmail.com I would love to hear your option!

wensday night at 7pm I will be on here blogging so make sure you are here to blog with me I would love to blog with you on my blog.

happy blog night all!!!!!!!!!!!

as i post entry's about weather events storms systems and forecast. feel free to become a member of my blog it is a friendly atmosphere to be in feel free to say say what you want to other people but DO NOT USE FOUL LANGUAGE OR UNNECESSARY BEHAVIOR OR YOU WILL BE REMOVED FROM MY MEMBERS LIST. THANK YOU please be check back frequently as there will be new members joining soon  and conversations will be forming.

any user from fox 29 can talk on here
once again thank you and I hope to talk to you soon!

will get will it be a 1 2 3 4or 5 we shall see

you can sumbit your guesses below the closest guess wins!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dry in the south 

The dry weather to the south will just not let up some places like Alabama need over 25 inches of rain. the dry weather  just does not effect the south it effects everyone in the us in a way first I have noticed that because of the dry weather in the south temperatures down there have been very hot. when ever a cold front comes near it either falls a part or stays to the north and goes off the east coast. also I have notice a shift in patterns for one back in june Texas got major flooding from very heavy rain fall. that rain fall came from a trough that was parked in the gulf of Mexico.reason why it would not move east is because of the dry conditions in the south. but in stead it sended heavy rain right up along the Mississippi river valley but in the upper Midwest it is also dry. but the lattest effects from this were heavy rains that caused the worst flooding in more than 20 years in the ohio river valley. as much as 10 inches of rain  fell in some places last week (august 12 to the 16th) during that period we had cool and rainy conditions  for 3 to 4 days the first time that has happened for that long since 1940. so yes the dry weather is playing an effect on our weather and it is not over yet more to come. to break the dry spell we need tropical rains which brings me in to my next topic

Hurricane season is quite this year 

could we have an early fall

Once again the dry weather to the south could have an effect on the weather coming up in the next few months. Right now the temperatures are around normal. But because the dry weather in the south is like a big dome systems from the gulf and upper mid west will be pushed our way in saying that there will be more rain than usually starting in September. due to systems from the gulf being pushed father to the north. the on thing that that will make them different is they have the advantage of bringing down cold air with them because of being farther to th north. and also cold fronts could be on the strong side in mid September bringing down cool air. I think temperatures by late September cold be in the mid to upper 50s by fall we could be a couple degress below average but the biggest weather bubble will be this winter which takes me to my final topic but first i will take you back to last winter

last winter and the winter of 2007 to 2008

 Last winter was full of weird trends and patterns.and plenty of ice in fact we had three ice storms temperatures were all over the place anywhere from 53 to 30 degress. and from 35 to 10 at night we did get a little snow last winter but more ice than snow because the freezing line hovered right over us(5400 line) and if you want to talk about the computer models they were all over the place giving out  crazy numbers and predictions. but all in all to say the least it was exciting to track.

This winter is a whole new winter And I think old man winter may have a few storms up his sleeves. for one thing with how slow the dry spell to the south ends could mean allot for us but I that will end in late October and as that happens EL NIÑO will form south of the Florida keys. It is early to tell weather it will be strong or not but right now i think it will be moderate. which means we will have slightly below normal temps this winter with the coldest temps being in late January and early February. so it will be a cold winter good for ice fishing last winter was not it some parts of Pennsylvania.

on the noreaster and storm side of things I think we will have 2 majors northeaster as the jet stream will make a u and send more areas of low pressure than usually up the coast So as of now I think we could have a white Christmas this year. and our snowfall total will be 39 inches with one ice storm.

Well that is my stud on weather for the next few months and winter hope you liked it if you have any questions or comments i would love to hear and remember you can always go to my web site at    www.mainoutlet.bravehost.com

tonight we will have a return for the muggies. and with that comes a big price that we will all pay heavy rain first we will have heavy rain develop across the region tonight. the rain will star after there could be a few thunderstorms associated with it  areas could get up to an inch of rain some two inches of rain there could be some flash flooding in areas of pour drainage 

 tommarrow I will have a big concern for flash flooding as storms will pop up like crazy. there will be severe weather all over the place. there will even be scattered  super cell thunderstorms. some storms could form a line and produce large hail and strait line winds. funnel clouds are not out of the question for tommarrow  most people will get a good inch of rain many could get 2 to 3 inches some even up to 5 inches of rain. I am concerned for major flash flooding and if arepat occurs on thursday and friday we could have to watch the major rivers rise the storms will effect both the morning and evening rush hour so if you can work from home do so. also the typical creeks and streams that usaly flood  will flood by this time tommarrow. I AM NOT JOKING AROUND THIS TIME TOM MARROW WILL BE A DANGEROUS DAY.

 by the way the high will not reach 90 tommarrow because of the rain and storms but it will only reach 85 degress

All of this will happen because of the stalled out front. I am only posting about one day at a time because there is so much that will happen between now and tommarrow at this time

please if you have any questions or comments and I mean any ask me on my blog I try my best to keep you informed on the event as it happens even if it means
 that I am tracking this at work tommarrow 

 Joseph Vodvarka

well it is hot the dewpoints are high and so is the humidity the end result will be thunderstorms some storms that form in the north and western parts of our area will be severe. storms should fade out after 9 pm. thunder heads started to pop up around the area after 12 o'clock this afternoon in our area. to the west they started a bit earlier this is why storms have fired up to the west not southeastern pa but once they get a bit higher the storms will pop up on th radar and in the area after 1:30 pm.the main threat with these storms will be heavy rain some storms could produce 1 to 3 inches of rain in some locations in a short period of time. now below i have posted the severe thunderstorm watch that has been issued. I think if storms start to pop up in our are we will get a severe thunderstorm watch issued for us but there is a better chance for us to get a severe thunderstorm watch tommarrow when a cold front will slid through after midnight tommarrow in to friday morning.

 todays high will be 98 some cars or weather instruments may read 100 - 103

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of western Connecticut western Massachusetts northern New Jersey central and eastern New York central and eastern Pennsylvania southern Vermont Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 800 PM EDT. Hail to 1.5 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Pittsfield Massachusetts to 40 miles southwest of DuBois Pennsylvania. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou6). Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. Discussion... scattered thunderstorms are increasing in coverage throughout region of moist/unstable air mass across parts of NY/PA. These storms are likely to persist through the afternoon and spread eastward into western New England. Despite rather weak vertical shear... isolated multicell storms will be capable of damaging winds and hail. Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025.

If you have a question or comment or wan to talk to me or talk on my blog please feel free to do so on my blog.

Joseph vodvarka

Coming to a house near you thunderstorms of all types all this week from 2pm to 8pm.

some could be strong to severe some weaker than others. 

we will watch them as they pop up on the radar 

humidity anybody 

this week we will have temps in the low to mid 80s and high humidity and dew point levels. but on tuesday and wensday we will have highs in the low 90s

if you have question or comment just post it on my blog

 Joseph Vodvarka

Todays Forecast

Today we will have a repeat of yesterday but the storms today will not spread as far west and will reach the shore points today. but there will be heavy rain in some spots. today's high will be 78 degress. some storms could be severe and contain small hail frequent cloud to ground lighting and winds up to 45mph. localy 2 to 3 inches of rain is expected. storms will start after 1:30pm and last untill 8pm.

Today I think new jersey will get the worst of the storms but philadelphia will still get heavy rain 1 to 2 inches of it.

If you have a question or comment i would love to hear it on my blog.

I will have a more detailed blog by 2pm.

Humidity + high dew points = heavy rain and big thunderstorms

Today the humidity and dew point levels have gone up 45 to 50 degress. and also the high pressure that was over the area has left us and has parked it self about 25 to 50 mph off shore . with there being no high pressure over us high dew points and high humidity levels meaning that we now have a very unstable and unsettled air mass. so this evening in to tonight we will have severe weather. throughout the area where several different cells will form. they will come from the northwest. I do think we will have heavy rain devolve as soon as the sun sets. so what will happen is the storms that we have right now will expand across the state and the cells will merge together and form bands of heavy with thunder and lighting

ounce that does happen by tommarrow morning we could have 1 to 2 inches of rain in some parts of our area . yes I know that no one else is saying any thing about rain fall amounts. But I know that with humidity and dew point levels being so high. and with the cape sweat factor and lift indexes being at the perfect levels that they are at right now. meaning that we have the perfect setup for night time rain and storms. I think this is possible to happen during the day and night more so night from today through next Tuesday. as ti will get evening hotter on Friday night into Saturday. we will have an even grater chance for areas of rain to form.

Now a big concern from all of this that I have is flash flooding. that is because any thing that forms will move very slowly because we have high pressure parked off coast that will slide slightly to the south. low pressure in the upper Midwest moving slowly there is also a front up north that stretches from east to west moving over new england. and finally there is low pressure in the gulf.

all of that creates one big dome that makes any storm move slowly but form fast. where ever storms devlope or around our area they will stay over the same area for long periods of time when storm cells move very slow they tend to have an excellent chance. when they move fast they cant get there act together because they are moving from place

tomorrow will have very humid air and very very moist air on our hands. so rain and storms will be factor all day up in the Poconos they could get another 1 to 2 inches of rain from this and storms in the after noon will be severe with frequent lighting and very heavy rain. around Philadelphia we will have storms after noon time we could even see a good inch of rain also we will have storms just like the Poconos in the afternoon. down the shore there will just be a shower or two.

I don't want to get to detailed about the weekend forecast just yet because there is to much going on right now and can not put much trust in to the computer models because they did not see todays storms. alls I will say is that we will have the same weather pattern all weekend only whatever weather is to the north one day will be to the south the next day. I can say that by net Wednesday we get at least 4 to 6 inches of rain because of the slow movement.

Starting today I am having two contest the first I am having a contest to see who can guess how much rain we will get by next wensday and second I want you to guess the date when we will have our first category 1 hurricane of the season. you can submit your guesses for both contest on my blog and then I will keep track of all your guesses

To go to my web site and view current weather maps click on the following www.mainoutlet.bravehost.com

I will get more detailed on the weekend forecast later tonight or tommarrow If you have any questions or comments on this dangerous situation or want to submit your guesses post them on my blog.

This Week

This week is sarting out less humid but by wensday the humdity will return. also the chance of evening thunderstorms will return with a 45% chance of storms on thursday and friday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90 both days. but on saturday through next tuesday the gfs shows a cold front stalling out just to the west of our area which as of now will bring periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms. an also as of now we could recieve 2 to 4 inches of rain with this front.

my thinking on the front stalling out is that it will stall out just to the west of our area over centeral pa and that we will get heavy rain but the hraviest of the rain will be right along the front. I think that where ever the front stalls out is where 3 to 6 inches of rain could fall. now if the front stall right over philadelphia than philadelphia would get 3 to 6 if this does happen there will be flash flooding

inches of rain. we will have to wait and see how the track changes over the nekt few days as we all know the gfs and the nam can change there predictions at the las moment or could even go agains t the whole thing by tommarrow

send me anny comments or questions you have

joseph vodvarka

well it took allot of work to put this together but I now have my full hurricane prediction forecast for 2007 put together so here it is in full details.

Well if you take a step back to last years hurricane season you will see that we were close an average hurricane season with 10 total storms 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. You can see the tracks the hurricanes took and there strength by viewing this 2006 hurricane season map

Now if we compare last hurricane season to what this hurricane season has in store for us you will see some differences in the tracks and the number of hurricanes that we will have.

well first thing I did was study to see if this season will be effected by warmer ocean water temps, a change in the track, high pressure off the Africa coast or will la Nina form.

Well it turns out that each of the factors will each have an effect in its own way first; I think a moderate size ridge of high pressure will form off the northern Africa coast. The ridge of high pressure will affect the storm tracks for the hurricane season slightly. Meaning that storms that come off the Africa coast will start to form a little farther south than usual.

Because the tropical waves will start a little father to the south
that means the speed that the waves form in to tropical storms and hurricanes will change so I think tropical waves have a better chance for being good-sized named storms.

Also because of the moderate size high pressure that will form, we will have fewer storms than usual turn and go out the Atlantic Ocean and completely miss the Atlantic coast or the Gulf of Mexico. Which will result in a higher amount of storms going up the Atlantic coast.

Now with the sun getting hotter and hotter each year and with less heat burning off at night. More ice from the antartic is melting and the ocean water levels are rising and all this is amounting up to a 1 to 2 degree rise in ocean water temperatures. This will allow for better storm organization. So yes, this is a change in the track from the last few hurricane seasons

Now this year we will have an extremely weak la Nina unlike last year when we had a strong la Nina that really cut back on the number of hurricanes we had.

Now this year we will not be watching the Gulf of Mexico as much as usual due to more storms going up the coast. However, I due see one major hurricane forming in the gulf. The hardest hit area this year will be Florida and the Florida keys. Points to the north will have a lot of flooding rains including the Philadelphia area.

The total numbers for 2007 are as follows.

16 named storms with nine up the Atlantic coast 5 in the gulf and one in the south pacific.

With 12 becoming hurricanes eight in the Atlantic, coast three in the gulf 1 in the south pacific.

Five major hurricanes 4 going up the Atlantic coast and 1 in the gulf.

Forecast for rest of the week and Memorial Day weekend.

Wednesday we will have hazy sunshine with a high of 78 degrees.

On Thursday, we will have a high of 83 degrees with hazy sunshine.

On Friday, we will start out with sun then we will have a 50% chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. With a high of 87, digress with a few lucky spots hitting 90 degrees.

On Saturday we will have clouds and sun with an after noon shower and a high of 84 degrees

Sunday we will start out with some warm sunshine then we will have periods of showers and thunderstorms by 1 pm. a high of 81 degrees

Showers will linger into Memorial Day but could clear out by evening just in time for that baroque total rain from Sunday and Monday 1.00 inch Mondays high 77

If you are going down the shore just take off 8 degrees everyday this week with a sea breeze up to 9 mph then sea breeze will end on Saturday night but the same showers and storms will effect the shore on Sunday and Memorial Day

If you have a question or comment on my hurricane outlook for 2007 or the Memorial Day weekend forecast post me a comment or send me an email at jsv15@myway.com I would love to hear from you.

Joseph Vodvarka

The thing that is interesting about the line of storms is that they are not moving much to the east but more northeastward which means a longer period of storms and a bigger threat for flash flooding with some areas getting 2 to 4 inches of rain within 2 hours. so there will be several severe thunderstorms in the same location for the next 3 to 4 hours possibly longer from the same line because the front is not budging much to the east now because the flow of air out the sea that is slowing the front down sooner than expected originally the front was to stall out over the ocean just off the shore but will now slow down a bit sooner than expected. which means we will have storms that will change to very heavy rain that will last untill at least 9pm if not later.and as of now I see flashing flooding and heavy rain now becoming a much bigger issue than severe thunderstorms.

With the front now slowing down we will have heavy rain fall amounts that could reach 3 to 5 inches if this front continues to stall out.

I this changes I will update you as soon as it happens.

If you have any questions or comments about the storms feel free to ask me on my blog.

Joseph Vodvarka